The public at large is now paying attention to the Presidential Race. All of the big, flashy, campaign controlled events that were guaranteed media coverage (winning the nomination, announcing a VP, culminating in the conventions) are over. The McCain and Obama products are largely defined and packaged and ready to present to America.
The debates are the last widely-viewed opportunity for swaying the opinions of voters. Expectations are high for both candidates, though many express fears that debating is Obama's weak point.
Here's why I'm not worried.
The Issues
If the conventions proved anything, it's that the Republican Party is out of ideas. Speaker after speaker railed against Obama, and hailed McCain as a war hero, but for all their venomous rhetoric they failed again and again to present solutions for all of the major problems facing America that couldn't be solved by lower drilling or tax cuts.
Our wonderful VP made this point explicitly clear. The silence from the Republican party was deafening.
The RNC this year was nearly devoid of new ideas outside of Drill, Baby, Drill! On all of the major issues facing Americans, only a handful received any mention, and too many received no mention at all. Out of 385,000 words, over 60 speeches, only ONE mention of Bush? No mentions of Dick Cheney, Torture (that wasn't performed on McCain), Katrina, Afghanistan or Stem Cells? One mention of Guantanamo, Osama Bin Laden, Housing, Social Security, and Unemployment?
Yes, the conventions are about rallying the base, but they're also about presenting the agenda of your party to the American Public. Yet on some of the biggest issues of the day, the Republican party was silent. They can't even bring themselves to directly criticize Bush, or praise him either. They just don't mention him, hoping voters won't realize that their Senators, Congressman, and their candidate have marched lockstep with Bush on nearly every issue for the past eight years.
It is a powerful point that should be hammered relentlessly from now until the debates, and Obama/Biden will hopefully wield it like a club against McCain and Palin. On every issue that matters, Obama has an answer, and McCain doesn't. The entire McCain campaign against Obama, all of the ads, speeches, and the convention, has been nothing but failed ideas and personal attacks. These will not help him in the debates.
The Format
McCain accuses Obama of being the celebrity candidate, of being all pretty speeches and no substance. We know that Obama has the knowledge and the judgment to back up his speeches, and he proved it in Denver. McCain is the true empty suit. He is all personality and POW, and when that facade is shattered, there is nothing pretty underneath.
Up until 2008 that has worked fine for him. McCain loved the press, and they loved him. He got to go on the air and sound Mavericky without being directly challenged on anything. He took them for a ride on his bus and threw them a barbecue. Then he sold out his campaign to the lobbyists and the extreme right wing to win the candidacy, flip-flopped on a ton of positions, and now he's under a much harsher media scrutiny. It is clear that he is not enjoying it. He and his campaign have severely curtailed media encounters, especially unpredictable ones. The press no longer gets treated to impromptu sessions on the bus and plane, for fear that someone will challenge him on a big issue and he won't have a prepared response. Although many in the media still fawn over Maverick McPow, others now realize what he has become. From his prickly Time interview:
There's a theme that recurs in your books and your speeches, both about putting country first but also about honor. I wonder if you could define honor for us?
Read it in my books.
I've read your books.
No, I'm not going to define it.
But honor in politics?
I defined it in five books. Read my books.
[Your] campaign today is more disciplined, more traditional, more aggressive. From your point of view, why the change?
I will do as much as we possibly can do to provide as much access to the press as possible.
But beyond the press, sir, just in terms of ...
I think we're running a fine campaign, and this is where we are.
Do you miss the old way of doing it?
I don't know what you're talking about.
Really? Come on, Senator.
I'll provide as much access as possible ...
In 2000, after the primaries, you went back to South Carolina to talk about what you felt was a mistake you had made on the Confederate flag. Is there anything so far about this campaign that you wish you could take back or you might revisit when it's over?
[Does not answer.]
Do I know you? [Says with a laugh.]
[Long pause.] I'm very happy with the way our campaign has been conducted, and I am very pleased and humbled to have the nomination of the Republican Party.
You do acknowledge there was a change in the campaign, in the way you had run the campaign?
[Shakes his head.]
You don't acknowledge that? O.K., when your aides came to you and you decided, having been attacked by Barack Obama, to run some of those ads, was there a debate?
The campaign responded as planned.
McCain does not do well in interviews where he is challenged, has to answer tough unscripted questions, and cannot just spout talking points without being challenged. If he does not have a prepared answer in mind he completely shuts down.
There is no doubt that McCain will be heavily coached before the debates, just as Bush was. He will do fine responding to the initial questions on the expected topics, especially during the Foreign Policy debate. He will not do nearly as well having to respond to Obama, especially during the 5 minutes of open discussion on each topic. I trust that the Obama campaign knows this as well as we do, and I am certain that Barack will direct pointed, uncomfortable, but completely justified questions at McCain. McCain will freeze up, stumble, say something incorrect, and in the end fall back on talking points and complete nonsense. The press usually lets that slide and doesn't follow up. Obama will.
Obama, on the other hand, may stammer a bit when he's putting together a response in his head, but he is rarely caught flat-footed and without an answer. We all crave soundbites, and the campaign is likely scripting some zinger, but this year America is craving answers. Our candidate has them.
Even the Town Hall debate, McCain's supposed strength, will be trouble for him. McCain only performs well at controlled Town Halls, just like Bush, where he can expect friendly questions and roll out his memorized stories and talking points without being called out. He's used to having the stage to himself in these events, but that won't be the case. Obama will be right there alongside him, providing the strong visual contrast and ready to knock down any points he makes.
Some point out that Obama had some trouble at the debates earlier this year, while McCain performed well. However, Obama was always one of the two front-runners in the Democratic Primary. He and Hillary were the pair to watch, and were given more time and attention, and thus more pressure and scrutiny. The Republican debates were much more chaotic. There was never a clear front-runner for any period of time. Giuliani, Huckabee, and Romney all had their time in the spotlight, leaving McCain free to snipe from the sidelines. By the time he became the front-runner, the debates were pretty much over. Amongst the Republican field, he could act like the center-right Maverick. Against Obama alone, his ties to the extreme Right will be clearly visible.
The Temper
This is the wild card. McCain's temper is legendary among his friends and coworkers, but he is remarkably good at keeping it under wraps when cameras are rolling.
The media has reported on his short temper, but there is precious little recorded evidence of it. One of the most telling moments in that clip above is from one of McCain's recent appearances on the Daily Show. Jon Stewart does what more reporters need to do, and what Obama will likely do, which is to directly challenge McCain to his face and not allow him to get away with the usual talking points and falsehoods. McCain chuckled, but I think he really wanted to take a swing, verbally or physically, at Stewart.
John McCain's 2008 run for the presidency has been long and arduous. He was on the verge of being rendered obsolete in 2007, so he sold out his campaign to lobbyists. This kept his campaign running, but in order to win votes he had to sell out again, this time to the extreme Right. This produced the infamous 2008 McCain, who bears little resemblance to the 2000 McCain. Maintaining that personality clearly bothers the Maverick. Again and again he has been forced to advocate positions he used to disagree with, run ads that make him look sleazy, and even make big campaign decisions dictated by the Right (Palin). McCain's public image, of the tough, straight-talking, maverick-POW, is his most valued possession. He is never more annoyed than when it is pointed out that he has dragged his precious image through the mud in order to make it make it this far.
Obama should, and most likely will, point this out in the debates. He has plenty of ammunition. After nearly two years of campaigning McCain's frustration, weariness, and self-loathing are all boiling, just under the surface. It will not take much prodding for it to erupt out in a vicious, embarrassing tirade that will be seen by a national audience. Even a quick, well-worded response could reflect poorly on him.
The issues are stacked against him, the format forces him to be explain himself, and his temper threatens to humiliate him. The contrasts between the candidates will come to light, and 2008 McCain will finally be revealed.