Just when I was starting to feel sick about the daily tracking polls and the McCain offensive (in all senses of the word), I thought about this: If someone told me last year that Barack Obama would be ahead in electoral vote projections, slightly ahead (or at the worst tied) in national polls after the conventions, I think I'd be happy to take those odds. Even an iffy, more measured electoral vote projection like CNN's has 243 already in the Obama column to McCain's 189, in addition to more analytical sites like fivethirtyeight.com predicting Obama around or over 300 EVs. Whose position would you rather be in?
Even though the possibility that McCain's cynical Palin ploy has generated some enthusiasm in the short term or that McSame's "Green Screen 2" convention speech hasn't been panned for the crappy speech that it was, it's amazing that both campaigns and the media are working from the default that Obama is the front-runner. It’s easy to focus on the negative after the smears and lies of the past week, but, so what, they get to choose their VP and have a convention. But let’s look at the positive: It is easier to imagine an African American man as president than it is a "war-hero." What I mean is we can envision a President Obama; what the Republicans imagine is only a not-Obama presidency.
This diary is not meant to promote complacency, but just to offer a bigger perspective than the day-to-day annoyances of the campaign season. Think back to how many times has the Obama movement faced down worst-case scenarios and bounced back stronger than ever?
- After Clinton upsets in New Hampshire and Nevada, South Carolina was supposed to be in play. I think SC was called about a second after the polls closed.
- We might have forgotten that Clinton came out of Super Tuesday at least with a numerical lead. Plus, Obama lost California despite momentum there and Massachusetts despite the support of Kennedy, Kerry, and Patrick. And it was a late, comeback win in Missouri by a slim margin that helped Obama win the battle of perceptions.
- On the eve of the Wisconsin primary and "plagiarism-gate" getting traction, the numbers were supposed to be tightening. That didn't happen, obviously, and the double-digit WI win for Obama pretty much won the nomination in retrospect.
- After Rev. Wright, Obama came back stronger than ever, giving his really poignant race speech in Philadelphia and the strong denunciation of Wright. This came at a particularly bumpy time after Obama has pretty much won by the numbers, having to weather Wright, "bitter-gate," 3-AM phone calls, SNL skits, Somali garb, not to mention how many other whisper campaigns – Geez, I’ve forgotten how many of these things we have already weathered!
- With stories of another Clinton comeback (really a Hail Mary) in Indiana and North Carolina, it was Obama who gained ground and put the primary away, at least in terms of perception.
So there certainly are some counterexamples where things didn’t happen the way we expected (sneaking up in California, winning both ends of the Texas two-step, come to mind), but the point is that we’re not just standing, but we’re ahead.
Again, this diary isn’t meant to be complacent or blind to the urgency of what is happening now, but just a reminder of how many times we’ve been in similar situations like this. There’s a lot of big things we can keep on doing, as other here are much better qualified to talk about, like canvassing, donating more money than we can afford, and fighting the smears and keeping people honest. But even the little things can matter: I was wearing my new Obama t-shirt yesterday (they delivered it within 2 weeks!), and got into a conversation with other Obama supporters, an older, white Sunday-school-teaching middle-aged woman and her mother – this is particularly reassuring to me, as a not-quite-old Asian American male in Orange County, CA! While this isn’t the same as convincing a swing voter to commit to Obama, it did give me a sense that there are more people out there who share our common ideas and ideals.
Let’s trust our instincts, just not fall back on them. We are on the right side of history.