I'm not one for short diaries, but this point seems relatively obvious to me and I haven't seen it documented to this point. If it has been discussed, I will happily delete.
As I see it, here's the current situation:
- The McCain/Palin ticket has gained a bounce out of their convention.
- Much of this bounce is likely a result of increased Republican enthusiasm and support for the McCain/Palin ticket
- It is too early to determine the size and extent of the bounce.
- No good post-convention state polling has been published.
- we continue to elect presidents by state and not by national referendum.
If we take these five points as a given, we are left asking a simple question: where are the McCain/Palin gains most likely to be taking place. I would offer that it seems most likely and most obvious that these gains are to a large extent in red states where the Obama/Biden ticket has been over-performing traditional Democratic tickets. These would include deep red states that Democrats had no chance of taking, as well as more purple states, such as Indiana and North Carolina, where Democrats are hoping for an upset. I would guess that within two weeks or so, we'll see that states like Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana and, obviously, Alaska will no longer be in play. The Palin choice plays very well to disaffected conservatives that might have thought about sitting this election out, voting for Barr, or even perhaps switching to Obama.
Where the pick is less likely to play well in are states that are traditionally more moderate, or traditionally more focused on the economy. These states include Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida. If I remember right, those have a history of being relatively important :)
So what the Palin choice has likely done is pushed us further back to a 2000 or 2004 battleground map, while not changing the positive Democratic trends in those core battleground states, and possibly even hurting the Republicans a bit there.
There's no question, we have one hell of a fight on our hands. But taking cues from national polling is dangerous and can often lead to misinterpreting the actual state of the race. If we can get three out of four of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida, done deal, game over, President Obama. I would wait for polls to come out in those states before I make any judgment on whether Palin was a smart choice for McCain or not. If choosing her forced McCain to trade a couple points in those states for a few more points in red states, he loses; that's exactly what I expect has happened.