So, our collective undies are in a twist over Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls and USA Today/Gallup poll showing a Palin bounce in national preferences. Say it with me: this isn't a national election. It's is a state-by-state slugfest.
Remember how Barack shocked the Clinton campaign by a brilliant strategy of winning delegates on a district-by-district basis? His team knew exactly how delegates are apportioned; her team did not. Hillary was playing football for yards, while Barack played for points.
His campaign knows exactly where it needs to target persuasion efforts in areas where actual electoral college votes (you know - the way we actually decide who's going to be President?!) are in play. You know how I know that? I actually joined an Obama Team in Wisconsin and saw the strategy for my state.
Part of the reason why Barack doesn't show a huge lead in the national polls, is frankly, because of the South. It's the only region where Barack polled behind McSame last week. A closer look at last week's Gallup results broken down by region bears this out.
Aug. 25-31, 2008
Barack Obama John McCain
East 54% 37%
Midwest 50% 40%
South 44% 48%
West 49% 42%
I think when this week's numbers come out, we're going to find that the Palin bounce will be biggest in the bible belt states that are frankly not part of our winning strategy. That doesn't mean that Barack isn't paying attention to those states -- he is. He wants to be President of the United States. But it does mean that the national polls that include these states simply do not reflect the probability that we will win in November.
We're not dead in the water, but we have 57 days of hard work ahead to make this happen. So, calm down and don't get yourself all psyched-out. Then get fired up, get off your butts and do some canvassing (or stay on your butts and phonebank!). Join an Obama Team today. Call your local office and join up -- or, use the nifty new online neighbor-to-neighbor tool.
You'll learn how the game is being played. You'll feel better. You'll make a difference. Remember, we are the change we seek.