So let's be clear, this poll might be a definite outlier, but it could put North Carolina, a state that was being contested by the Obama camp, out of reach.
From ABC 11
he following was asked of 671 likely voters (more data on collection listed at the bottom):
* If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?
58% McCain (R)
38% Obama (D)
2% Other
2% Undecided
The Results of a SurveyUSA Election Poll
Geography Surveyed: North Carolina
Data Collected: 09/06/2008 - 09/08/2008
McCain is now in front among the educated and less educated, among the affluent and less affluent. He's polling at 64% in Coastal Carolina (up from 57%), at 60% in Charlotte (up from 53%), and at 54% in Raleigh / Greensboro (up from 44%). Pro-Life voters backed McCain 2:1 last month, 4:1 this month.
SurveyUSA interviewed 900 North Carolina adults 09/06/08 - 09/08/08. All interviews were completed after the Labor Day weekend, and after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention. Of the 900 adults, 783 were registered to vote; of them, 671 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/08 general election. North Carolina has 15 Electoral College votes. Incumbent Republican President George W. Bush carried the state by 12 points in 2004 and by 13 points in 2000.
Personally, I think this poll is an outlier. It's a weekend poll which tends to skew more Republican. HOWEVER, I never thought that North Carolina was ever in play. I do think that red states like North Carolina (and possibly Virginia)will solidify their support for McCain after the Palin pick. I expect a 10-12% McCain victory in NC.
However, the state we need to be worried about is Virginia. If this is a trend among Southern Evangelicals than turnout in Southern Virginia might outstrip any gains made in the Blue areas of Northern VA.
Let's not panic yet, however the Obama camp can't be happy about these numbers.
Update: PPP thinks that this poll is, amount other words, bullshit:
Yes, I saw the poll with McCain up 20 in North Carolina.
-No, I don't believe it.
-Yes, we are going in the field tonight.
It will be interesting what the PPP NC poll digs up.