Yes, we've seen countless diaries about how the Democrats need to get tough against the Republicans.
And while I agree that the Democrats often could use this advice, I do not accept it as a wholesale campaign strategy. Why? Because it oversimplifies campaigning.
In other words, it's playing checkers, when you should be playing chess...
Why chess? Chess is a multi-layered strategy game between two forces. Just like 2 political campaigns.
What are some lessons that we learn from chess, and how can we apply them to the Obama campaign?
1) First, protect your king
Novice chess players often attack without discretion, and in the course open themselves up for attack. Good players focus on strategic positioning, so that when they attack, it sticks.
Instead of going on the attack immediately after the Palin speech, the Obama camp made sure their footing was sure. They focused on policy points for a few days, showed their substance, released a book. This way, when they go into attack mode, if the Republicans came back with "naval gazing" or "empty suit", it would look incongruous.
2)Before you go for the checkmate, develop your pieces
A lot of chess is about quietly preparing and positioning your pieces for the moment of major attack. Obama's incredible fund-raising ground game has been slowly but surely positioning Obama for an attack on many former Republican strongholds.
3) If you must sacrifice a piece, trade up
McCain's camp applied this rule (as best they could) with the Palin VP pick. McCain's camp has had a core weakness since the beginning: a divided base. McCain had the option to appeal to Independents (who currently hate Bush and the republican status quo), or his base (who demand extreme platforms). He would have to make the choice of a conservative to bring base support.
Since he was going to have to make a sacrifice, he needed to trade up. So he found an "outsider" who could add some extra dimensions to his campaign (use the outsider status to steal the change theme, use the woman status as a safe place from which to attack). In short, he made the best of a bad situation. And the polls tilted to reward his strategy.
4) Look for ways to place a pin on your opponent
In Chess, pinning an opponent refers to when you offer an opponent two threats simultaneously, forcing them to sacrifice one of their pieces. Obama's camp is doing this. On the one side, they are drilling in the meme that McCain = Bush, and using Palin as further evidence of this. On the other side, they are using issues like stem-cell research to divide the base further. McCain camp has to either abandon the base or his maverick status to respond to these.
5) Always have a plan
This is huge. You must anticipate your opponent's reaction, and think several moves ahead. While many were panicking post-Palin, notice what you DID see from the Obama camp. Biden and him both came out quickly, but methodically with some obviously coordinated talking points. They guarded their core, and started a slow but steady attack on the "maverick" meme. Then they opened their attack on the second front. Stem-cell research.
And, instead of launching an all-out attack, Biden made a nuanced and controlled jab. McCain reacted quickly, without protecting his core (Rule 1). This left them vulnerable to counter-attack, which Obama camp did perfectly.
This is why I'm not worried. Obama is clearly playing chess.
Unlike Kerry or Dukakis or other Democrats, they have never succeeded in making Obama look ridiculous, because Obama does not leave himself vulnerable when he goes on the attack.
Meanwhile, Obama continues to play the ground game, creating a lopsided playing board in his favor. Obama camp was wisely playing the waiting game much of this time, because without knowing McCain's VP pick, they didn't know which line of attack to use against them.
Palin's speech is just the beginning of Obama's victory course.
Now that they have a VP pick, Obama can intensify their efforts to exploit weaknesses in the McCain campaign.
Watch for them to open up attacks on several levels. McCain may have won a battle with Palin, but he's losing the war. Watch how they both act with foresight. They have a plan. Watch how their attacks intensify.
Watch.