As most observers of the VA-GOV race have learned by now, Public Policy Polling released their final poll of the Virginia gubernatorial primary yesterday. The news was absolutely phenomenal for state Sen. Creigh Deeds, who now enjoys a significant lead in the polls after trailing for most of the season.
Today, SurveyUSA confirmed Deeds' significant lead, a lead which was diaried by teacherken here.
And now Creigh Deeds is able to announce the endorsement of NoVA leader and state Sen. Toddy Puller (D-Fairfax) in the primary. Puller, in her endorsement captured the feelings of many Northern Virginians (like me), when she said, "I also admire Brian Moran, but I think Creigh is the one who now has the momentum. I think he has a good chance to win the primary--and I think he's our best hope to beat Bob McDonnell in the fall"
Going back to the polling, PPP's Tom Jensen in his poll release yesterday, said:
The undecideds have broken almost exclusively to Creigh Deeds in Virginia's Democratic primary for Governor, allowing him to open up a double digit lead 36 hours before voters in the state head to the polls.
Deeds is now at 40%, followed by Terry McAuliffe at 26%, and Brian Moran at 24%. Since PPP's last poll Deeds has gained 13% while his opponents have each gone up by just 2%.
Survey USA gives Deeds a twelve-point lead over McAuliffe, similar to the fourteen-point lead shown in the PPP poll:
42% Deeds
30% McAuliffe
21% Moran
7% Other / Undecided
Of equally important note in the SUSA poll is how Deeds fares better against McDonnell among general election voters than either of his primary rivals:
47% McDonnell (R)
43% Deeds (D)
48% McDonnell (R)
41% McAuliffe (D)
49% McDonnell (R)
38% Moran (D)
The uptick in Deeds support is palpable. Driving around Northern Virginia this weekend, I saw a huge Deeds presence in Arlington and Fairfax Counties, jurisdictions that should, in theory, be firmly behind either Brian Moran or Terry McAuliffe. I've also seen the Creigh Deeds NoVA television ad several times. And in an interview granted to fivethirtyeight.com today, Ken Strasma, Barack Obama's national targeting director in 2008 predicted a Deeds victory.
Will this translate to electoral success tomorrow? I can't say for sure--this will be a low turnout race, and from what I've seen, the Deeds GOTV operation is an unknown. He had scaled back on field when he was mired in third place and needed more widespread exposure, but with the cash flowing in now, he has enough money to compete with his opponents. If he has adequately directed the late efforts into GOTV, then these poll results should be indicative of a Creigh Deeds win tomorrow.