I'm writing this diary to draw your attention to an excellent article in the Guardian, which sums up very well what I have been hearing for awhile from other sources. You can find the article here. To sum up, China is bracing itself for a year of likely civil unrest that may (or may not) place the government's lock on power in question.
For a summary and some additional thoughts, read on.
The Chinese "economic miracle" has largely been built on two, related strategies:
- Make stuff for export
- Educate a growing percentage of people to innovate so you can make better stuff for export.
In tandem with this role has been growing Chinese activity in opening markets for export that are new to China--you could call this re-imperialism, as much of it has involved moving into the "failed states" and economic basketcases raped, pillaged and abandoned by the US and Europe. Countries like Sudan and Liberia are now becoming heavily dependent on Chinese aid and industry. With dependency comes control. For China, the reward is new markets for Chinese goods, workers who can be paid even less than Chinese migrant workers (and that is really saying something...) and access to supplies of essential raw materials.
So how well is this working for China? For the government and the elites, it is certainly working very well. Wealth has been created and concentrated in the hands of a small sliver of powerful families. Upper class suburbs now ring all of the major Chinese cities, modeled on those in the US and Europe.
For the middle classes, the benefits are also there, but more precarious. "Middle class" living conditions in China would not be considered as such in the West, but I'm not one to argue with the blessings of hot and cold running water and the ability to buy a Starbucks coffee or own a car or motorbike. My own intersection with the changes in China has been through teaching the children of the new middle class. In doing so, I've seen the good and the bad--the stultifying results of an education system that relies on rote and group learning, and the joys of seeing students realise unknown talents and work hard to earn degrees. I've also learned that a degree from a Western university is not the route to a better life that many families had hoped for. Students come to the UK with their families having saved for a lifetime to give them this opportunity. Those from less privileged families have the added pressure of their parents having borrowing a great deal of money as well--if they're lucky, from a wealthier friend or relation, if unlucky from the local syndicate (criminal moneylenders). The hope is that the student on returning will land a good job, so the family can pay back the loan.
For the workers, who form the vast majority o Chinese people, it's hard to say. Millions have traded in back-breaking farm labour for slightly less back-breaking factory work. Of course, there are also tens of thousands of on-the-job deaths in mines and factories, as Chinese industry lacks the health and safety controls seen in the West. Unions (other than toothless state unions) are banned, as are all other forms of grassroots political groups.
With the global recession being felt in China (and China played a role in it too, through its sovereign wealth funds and willingness to play the race to the bottom game), both the middle class and the workers are starting to see their gains, however slight, end.
Returning students are finding their degrees are not getting them into jobs that will pay back the investments. This is going to leave many families (not just the graduated students themselves) in real trouble. The Chinese government's main response that I have been able to see is its new emphasis on teaching Confucianism to secondary students, which is being done in schools and also in pop culture and Internet campaigns. The idea is that filial piety and duty to the state, if sufficiently inculcated, will prevent student unrest on the scale of Teinanmen Square. The cop in your own head is always more effective than the one outside.
For the workers though, the problem is more stark. It's Chinese New Year today, which is the only time of year that millions of migrant workers in China are allowed to return home. This year, millions are being asked to not come back. Others were sent home early, with the same instructions. According to an analyst quited in the Guardian story, this policy was formulated in hopes that unrest is less likely in the village, where everyone knows everyone and their business, than in the city, where the anonymous mob presents opportunities for action with fewer consequences.
Already there are a lot of protests, actions (such as widespread sabotage) and riots happening in China. I only know about some, mainly because I have a friend who is in contact with people in China who are trying to organise Chinese miners, or from reports from former students. The Guardian articleputs some numbers on these events: 87,000 "mass incidents" in 2005, likely far more since then--the government has stopped issuing reports.
How might this affect us? Well, as a union member I'm a believer in solidarity with other workers. I will never understand why hardly any of the world's unions are involved in organising within China, or spreading the word about effective IWW-style actions that don't require formal union power but do "get the goods." China had a nascent but effective labour movement before the revolution, it's one of the things that (obviously) led to it. Given tools that work well today, I have faith that people can sort things out to their own benefit. I would like to hope that some solidarity on our part could help Chinese workers, and the middle class who are about to share their struggle.
There may be impacts on the products we can buy. We may also see more production shifted from China into its new semi-colonies, from workers who are already super-exploited to workers who may well be virtual slaves (of which there are already millions in China, so it's sort of like racing to the bottom and then digging a hole in it...) If it affects the sovereign welath funds or the way China has been propping the dollar, well, the result could be catastrophic for us as well.
All that's certain is that we're all in this together.
Please share your thoughts, especially if you have personal experience.