It goes back to something we were taught in poli sci class in college.
Something written by the political scientist V.O. Key about the tides of politics....and the tides of history.
2008 may well have been what V.O. Key called a critical election or a realigning election and if that's the case, then the electoral tide is sweeping the Republicans out to sea.
More after the jump.....
Political scientists say they happen every thirty years or so. And they realign the ruling or governing coalition.
1932, for example, was a realigning election. My own home town of Pittsburgh, which had been a Republican stronghold since 1860, elected its first Democratic Mayor in 70 years, and hasn't elected a Republican since. Catholics, Jews, and blacks moved into the Democratic column. The FDR coalition endured through Vietnam.
From 1968 through 1978, the tectonic plates shifted until the 1980 Reagan landslide led to a new GOP coalition that eventually took control of the once solidly Democratic south. 1980 was a critical election.
The tectonic plates shifted in 2006, and in 2008, massive voter registration drives altered the electorate...Hispanic and immigrant voters moved to the Democrats by the millions...Young voters and black voters were energized. The new Democratic voters in 2008 are the voters of the future. They are from groups with the highest birthrate.
Republicans, who cast their lot with the talk show hosts and the anti-immigrant types, were wiped out in New Mexico, lost Colorado, and lost Florida. The Hispanic enthusiasm for Obama, the son of an immigrant, is palpable, and Latinos are solidly Democratic for the foreseeable future. (Everywhere except Calle Ocho, and that's changing, too.)
Reagan Republicanism has run its course, and people now realize that no regulation leads to bank failures, Madoff pyramid scams, and poisoned peanut butter. Everyone but the Republican right seems to understand that someone needs to mind the store.
All this leads to the conclusion that 2008 was a critical election: the old coalition that sustained Republicans since 1980 has been eclipsed. A new electorate - with more blacks, Hispanics, immigrants, and young Democrats - provides new long-term advantages to the Democrats.
Of course, none of this guarantees Democrats will maintain these advantages. The economic difficulties will continue, and Obama's honeymoon will eventually end. There will be failures and scandals, because there always are.
But the electorate has changed, and the map has changed. And the demographic trends point to an even bluer America. That's what has Republicans so terrified.