It's the most...wonderful...time...of the year. That is, the time when the data for the 2008 elections finally comes in.
Generally, new versions of state files come in at a steady trickle, growing to a near-unmanageable flood as the election draws near. But early in the new year after an election, there will be more than usual. Why? The long-awaited arrival of vote history and final new registration figures for the 2008 general.
With that in mind, I think it's time we took a more in-depth look at what exactly we're getting when a state sends vote history. Consider this as a companion piece to the last time we discussed this (back in the halcyon days of mid-October).
There are a few things to consider when evaluating the quality of vote history coverage:
- Election coverage: What elections are represented on the file? Statewide should all be there, but local? Municipal? And is this coverage uniform statewide? I addressed these issues in the last post, so I won't go into too much detail here.
- Voting method: Some states keep track of whether people voted absentee, by mail, early, or in person on election day. This can be valuable information, especially for running future field programs (people who voted early this year can probably be counted on to do the same in the future, and so on). Nevertheless, some states don't preserve it, and those that do each use an individual format. You'll have to work closely with someone who's really familiar with the state and the file to figure out what's meant in each state.
- Partisan primary: Distinct from party registration, this records whether a person voted in the Democratic or Republican primaries. Extremely useful; for example, consider a state like New Hampshire, which has a ton of registered indies (always with the fiscal conservatism/social liberalism and the love for Sufjan Stevens). Even if someone is registered independent, you can use this to gauge how likely they are to turn out for your primary. Again, not all states collect this.
It's only a small piece of the overall voter file puzzle. But it's often one of the most critical. Understanding vote history, and how to use it, is something that's definitely worth doing, and the first step is knowing what you're looking at.