As I and others have been saying for some time now, the influenza surveillance data which has been used to describe the novel H1N1 pandemic is based, not on actual confirmed cases, but merely on the number of people who present with flu-like illnesses. For some reason, the public has been told to assume that most of these are in fact cases of novel H1N1 influenza, but that has not been established. CBS News now reports that the overwhelming majority of people who have been tested did not have novel H1N1 influenza, or even, in most cases, have any form of flu.
In fact the percentage who had H1N1 flu ranged for 17% to 2% depending on the state. Here's the summary quote:
We asked all 50 states for their statistics on state lab-confirmed H1N1 prior to the halt of individual testing and counting in July. The results reveal a pattern that surprised a number of health care professionals we consulted. The vast majority of cases were negative for H1N1 as well as seasonal flu, despite the fact that many states were specifically testing patients deemed to be most likely to have H1N1 flu, based on symptoms and risk factors, such as travel to Mexico. . . .
With most cases diagnosed solely on symptoms and risk factors, the H1N1 flu epidemic may seem worse than it is. For example, on Sept. 22, this alarming headline came from Georgetown University in Washington D.C.: "H1N1 Flu Infects Over 250 Georgetown Students." . . . Without lab testing, it's impossible to know how many of the students actually had H1N1 flu. But the statistical trend indicates it was likely much fewer than 250.
Of course, the bad news is that if you think you've had it and don't need to be vaccinated, you are probably wrong. But once again, it is very important to put this outbreak in context: in the overall scheme of public health in the United States, including the risk of death to children and for that matter people of any age, of morbidity that causes lost days of work, and just general misery, this is actually a fairly minor issue.
Far more children will die this year of motor vehicle crashes and yes, homicide, than will die of any form of acute respiratory infection, including novel H1N1 flu, under even the most dire scenarios. Every day, children are being beaten, neglected, going hungry or malnourished, badly educated, witnessing violence, lead poisoned -- and we do a disservice to the truth and to the values we care about here by obsessing over a minor outbreak of a usually mild disease.