Any piece on Arlen Specter must begin with the premise that many of his positions change with the seasons. Can you think of another major political figure who changed parties twice AFTER making a name for himself in politics?!
What this means for the climate crisis is this: Specter is a very winnable vote. But he’s a winnable vote for Big Oil and King Coal as well, so we must keep the pressure on him to maintain his support.
This diary is part of the Adopt A Senator for Climate project that is one of the eco advocacy campaigns of DK GreenRoots. We are tracking Senators to determine their positions on climate change legislation so we can focus on key issues that might influence their votes.
Position on Climate Change Bill
Specter has generally been supportive in the past of taking action to solve the climate crisis. However, he has also looked to ensure that any climate bill was weak enough that he could avoid taking too much heat from big business back home.
Energy and Environment Daily says that Specter joined the Environment and Public Work Committee specifically to work on the climate bill. It’s difficult to know how to read this decision. Is Specter joining the committee to help pass a climate bill, or to kill it? I tend to think that he’s going to be supportive of whatever bill emerges from the committee process, but that he could play a significant role in that process to water down the bill in ways that protect Pennsylvania industries, particularly coal.
During his appearance at Netroots Nation 09, Sen. Specter committed to vote for cloture to allow Democratic Party priorities to receive an up or down vote. He specifically stated that the climate bill would be a bill on which he would vote for cloture. He also included Employee Free Choice as part of this commitment. This was a bit surprising as he’d committed to supporting a GOP filibuster of this very bill only a few months before. But it demonstrates Specter’s willingness to change positions as frequently as necessary to preserve his political future.
Specter did perform well at yesterday's hearing on Kerry-Boxer in the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. He spoke forcefully on the positive impact that clean energy investments can have on our economy, and congratulated Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter for his work on this issue.
Sierra Club is asking folks to thank Specter for his support, which I urge you to do as it is important that he know that we will support those who do the right thing on this issue.
Energy Industry Donations
Energy interests have not been major contributors to Specter’s campaign this cycle. Energy and Natural Resources contributions to Specter totaled $311,000. Electric utility companies have contributed a total of $179,899. Exelon is the biggest contributor in this group with a total of $57,650; PPL was next with $29,000. One interesting note on Exelon is that the company was one of the first companies to leave the U.S. Chamber of Commerce because of the Chamber’s denialist position on climate change.
He does get a ton of money from lawyers (nearly $1.2 million) and lobbyists ($413,000), but it’s hard to know whether any of those donations have any relevance to this issue. Given the relatively low level of industry contributions, I would guess not a whole lot.
Dirty Energy – Coal, Oil, and Nuclear
Sen. Specter has generally been a strong supporter of each of these industries, particularly coal. He has promoted coal-to-liquids (CTL) technology, including securing a $100 DOE grant for a proposed plant in Pennsylvania. CTL fuel would create TWICE AS MUCH global warming pollution as conventional oil. He’s been a supporter of offshore oil drilling as well as drilling in the Arctic Refuge.
Since becoming a Democrat, he hasn’t had much of a chance yet to develop a record on energy issues, so the above record may not be indicative of Specter’s future record. But, at this point, it’s the only record we’ve got.
Voting Record
Sen. Specter is an expert at shifting with the political winds. He knows just how to shape his record to accord with his constituency. Proof of this can be found in a fascinating study of his voting record conducted by 538.com in July.
If you follow this link – and I recommend that you do because the entire post is very interesting – you’ll see that Specter’s voting record shifted significantly based on the political constituency that he expected to rely upon at the time to win re-election.
The key to this study is that it focuses on contentious votes, which 538 defines as a floor vote where the majority of each party splits its votes. Who cares how someone votes if the final count is 90-10? We care about the votes where each vote is precious.
On contentious votes, Specter voted with the Democrats 44% of the time early in the year, when he was still a Republican. He was courting his traditional base of moderate voters in each party. After becoming a Democrat but before facing a primary challenge, he voted with the Democrats on 69% of the contentious votes. Now a Democrat, Specter moved from the center-right to the center-left. After Rep. Sestak announced his primary challenge, Specter moved into Ted Kennedy range by voting with the Democrats on 97% of contentious votes. Clearly, he is now courting the Democratic Party’s liberal base in an attempt to forestall Sestak’s challenge.
The Sestak Effect
Specter’s position on the climate bill will be significantly determined by the electoral calculus. If Specter decides that he needs to position himself closer to the Democratic base in order to defeat Sestak in the primary, then he may be more amenable to climate-friendly policies (Sestak is a strong supporter of the climate bill). But if he decides that he needs to position himself closer to PA’s coal companies and other special interests in order to defeat Republican Pat Toomey in the general election, then he may be more amenable to efforts to weaken and water down the bill.
Recent poll numbers show Sestak gaining. In Research 2000’s polling, Specter’s lead over Sestak went from 56-11 in May to 48-33 in August. A recent Susquehanna (a respected PA polling firm) poll found that only 31 percent of PA voters believe that Specter deserves re-election, and a Franklin & Marshall poll released today shows only 28% of registered PA voters have a favorable opinion of Specter. These numbers can only help to maintain Specter’s support of a strong climate bill. However, Pat Toomey is polling well in general election matchups, which could make him reluctant to embrace provisions over industry objections, especially if local industries object.
Climate Bill Benefits for Pennsylvania
If you’re reading this, you probably know that not only will tackling the climate crisis protect our environment and preserve public health and safety, but it will also jumpstart a clean energy economy and strengthen our economy both at home and abroad.
Here are some facts on how the bill would benefit Pennsylvania:
• As of 2007, there were nearly 3K clean energy businesses and employing nearly 40K people in PA. This will grow by leaps and bounds under a climate bill.
• PA will see $6.1 billion in new public and private investment due to the stimulus bill and a climate bill. These will create nearly 72K net new clean-energy jobs.
• Efficiency programs will save Pennsylvanians $2.7 billion between 2012 and 2020.
• The average American family spent $1,100 more each year on oil, gas and electricity under the Bush Administration’s policies. By 2020, average PA household will save $6.70 each month on electricity and $11.86 each month on gas under ACES policies.
We need to make sure that Sen. Specter is well aware of these facts throughout the debate on this bill.
Conclusion
Senator Specter’s had a change of heart since becoming a Democrat. And that’s admirable. However, to win the support of the community, Specter must show that he is a Democrat on critical elements of President Obama’s domestic agenda, including healthcare reform and the climate bill. We need to watch him closely to ensure that his actions strengthen the Kerry-Boxer bill to make it a true solution to the climate crisis.
Contact Info
DC Office: 202-224-4254
Local Offices: Follow this link for a list of PA offices