Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/26-28. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/19-21 results)
Scozzafava (R) 21 (30)
Owens (D) 33 (35)
Hoffman (C) 32 (23)
Scozzafava is down nine, and Hoffman is up nine. While Scozzafava got 46 percent of Republicans a week ago, she's down to 34 percent this week. Hoffman is up to 41 percent of Republicans this week, compared to 27 percent last week.
What's more, we asked Hoffman supporters who'd they support if Hoffman wasn't in the race, and 6 percent said Scozzafava, 5 percent said Owens, 28 percent wouldn't vote, and 61 percent would be undecided. I'm not sure what to make of that.
If Scozzafava's fade continues, Hoffman will win this thing. Democratic chances hinge on halting the Hoffman surge, which is why the DCCC has trained its guns on the conservative party candidate.