Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/26-28. Likely voters. (9/14-16 results)
As you may know, there will be one question on the ballot this November in Maine addressing the issue of same-sex unions. In part, it will read "Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry?" A "YES" vote takes away the right of same-sex couples to marry. A "NO" vote keeps the right of same-sex couples to marry. If the election were held today, would you vote YES or NO on this question?
Yes 47 (48)
No 48 (46)
That's a 3-point swing in the right direction, but it's within the poll's margin of error, so it could all be float. What we've got is a tied race, which was the case six weeks ago, and is the case this week. This will come down to field. Julia Rosen who is in Maine helping out with the field effort sends the following:
This thing clearly is going to come down to field, as you have noted all along. Our program is rocking and rolling. Joe Sudbay [from Americablog] is actually going to be a field captain while he is here.
Because of the strong fundraising they have been pouring cash into a really robust field operation. Couple highlights:
Over 100,000 supporters have been ID.
Over 300,000 calls made in the final 6 days alone, both virtually via the Call for Equality Program and in the office.
There will be over 20 GOTV offices.
There will be volunteers stationed in over 80 polling locations making sure that polls are open, running smoothly, and checking on numbers.
8000 volunteers on Election Day.
In 2008, over 700,000 voted in Maine, but that was a presidential year. In the 2006 mid-terms, about 550,000 turned out, which is what organizers are expecting this year. This is an off-year contest, but interest appears strong. Turnout is a wildcard. 100,000 is a nice number to build on, but won't win this thing.
Julia has some action items for those who want to help win this thing:
Virtual phone banking (out of state) http://protectmaineequality.org/...
In-person volunteering (in state) http://protectmaineequality.org/...
And a bunch of CA volunteers, including Paul Hogarth put together Drive for Equality to help people carpool up here: http://driveforequality.org/
If you haven't seen this already, we put together an overview of the needs for all three equality initiatives on the ballot: WA, ME and Kalamazoo: http://www.couragecampaign.org/...