By Stephen Yellin
Note: For this article, I am relying on David Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Elections. His website can be found at US Election Atlas
In just two days, voters will go to the polls in New Jersey to elect its Governor. Jon Corzine is locked in a dead heat with Republican Chris Christie, and it’s clear that the winner will be the one that more successfully turns out their base of support. In a race that will probably be decided by a few percentage points either way, I feel it is worth examining where both sides will be expecting their votes to come from. Recent statewide elections in New Jersey have seen the Democrats win by comfortable margins, which will not be the case this year. What example, then, can we draw on to determine (as best we can) how New Jersey’s 21 counties will vote in a close statewide election?
The example I will be using is New Jersey’s 1997 gubernatorial election. In that year, incumbent Republican Christie Whitman eked out a 47-46% victory over Democrat Jim McGreevey (remember him?), with a margin of just 26,000 votes (1.13 million to 1.11 million). That election also saw a strong 3rd party showing, with Libertarian Murray Sabrin receiving 4.7% of the vote, and three other independents drawing a combined 2% of the vote.
The last time an incumbent Democrat was in a tight race was Governor Jim Florio in 1993, who lost 49-48% to Whitman (by a similar 25,000 vote margin). Since Independent Chris Daggett is expected to draw significant support – polls have Daggett’s support ranging from high single digits to the mid-teens – 1993 is not the best indicator of how New Jersey’s counties will perform.
1997, then, is our best indicator of how the 2009 election might turn out. While Daggett will almost certainly perform better than Sabrin, his best areas of support seem to be the same as Sabrin’s, which makes 1997 a useful comparison. I doubt very highly than either Corzine or Christie will receive a majority, and neither may crack 45% of the vote, for that matter. With that caveat in mind, let’s peek under the hood at New Jersey’s 21 counties, and see what the data says about a close New Jersey election.
Part I – 1997
Whitman’s base
There were two critical parts to Christie Whitman’s victory in 1997 – Morris County and Bergen County. The former was Whitman’s strongest county, both percentage-wise and vote-wise; Morris County was (and still is) a Republican bastion, as no Democrat has been elected county-wide since Watergate. The latter county will be vital to both Corzine and Christie, as we’ll see later on; it produced more votes in 1997 (and in 2008, for that matter) than any other county in the state.
In 1997, Whitman’s margin over McGreevey in Morris County was 65.5% to 27.8% (the rest was for the Independents), which translated to a 56,000 vote margin for the Republican. In Bergen County, Whitman won with 53.4% of the vote, to 42.6% for McGreevey; this translated into a 30,000 vote margin. Two other key counties for Whitman were Ocean and Somerset Counties, with the latter being her home turf. Whitman’s margins there were 27,000 and 22,000 votes, respectively. Taken together, these four counties produced a combined 135,000 vote margin for the incumbent, which was enough to overcome McGreevey’s showing in the key Democratic-leaning counties.
McGreevey’s base
Jim McGreevey received his strongest showings from 4 counties: Essex, Hudson, Middlesex (his home turf) and Camden. Essex County includes the Democratic bastion of Newark, as well as several smaller, but still important Democratic-leaning towns (such as Irvington and the Oranges). It was McGreevey’s best county in 1997, giving him a 51,000 vote margin, or 61.4% - 35.4% over Whitman.
Hudson County was equally strong for the Democrat, but since it has a smaller population gave McGreevey a 33,000 vote margin. Camden was right behind Hudson, giving McGreevey a 57 – 36% margin over Whitman, equal to a 31,000 plurality.
Finally, McGreevey’s native Middlesex County (which includes Woodbridge and Edison) gave him a 52.4 – 39.5% margin, or about a 27,000 plurality over Whitman. When put together, these four counties gave McGreevey a 142,000 vote advantage over Whitman.
Shown as a table, we can see that McGreevey came out of the "base wars" battle with a 7,000 vote edge over Whitman:
Morris: 56,000 for Whitman
Essex: 51,000 for McGreevey
Hudson: 33,000 for McGreevey
Bergen: 30,000 for Whitman
Camden: 31,000 for McGreevey
Ocean: 27,000 for Whitman
Middlesex: 27,000 for McGreevey
Somerset: 22,000 for Whitman
Plurality for McGreevey = 142,000
Plurality for Whitman = 135,000
Total base Plurality = 7,000 for McGreevey
Swing Counties
As we can see, McGreevey was able to produce more votes from his "base counties" than Whitman. However, Whitman was still able to win by carrying several "swing" counties in the state, and by battling McGreevey to a draw in others. There were five counties that helped to decide who the next Governor would be: Atlantic, Burlington, Monmouth, Passaic and Union.
Atlantic County includes, as you might expect, Atlantic City. Florio carried Atlantic in 1993, but Whitman prevailed here by a 48 – 44% margin over McGreevey (or about 2,400 votes ahead). Burlington County is classic "swing" territory, with the Democrats breaking through on the county level in 2008 (thanks in part to Obama’s coattails). McGreevey prevailed here by a similar 48 - 44% margin over Whitman, giving him a 5,000 vote margin.
Monmouth County was critical to Whitman’s victory. In what was considered to be a "swing" county (going for Al Gore in 2000, for example) at the time, Whitman rolled up a 54.2 - 38% margin over McGreevey, equal to 31,000 votes. While Monmouth County now has a Democratic majority on the Freeholder Board (equivalent to a County Commission), it went for McCain in 2008, and is the home turf of Christie’s running mate, Monmouth County Sheriff Kim Guagdano. In 2009, Monmouth County will be part of Christie’s base, while Bergen County (as we’ll see) will be a swing county.
Passaic County, which includes the old industrial town of Patterson, was one of the worst for the Independents, with a combined total of 4%. McGreevey prevailed here by a 50-46% margin, about 4,700 votes ahead of Whitman.
Finally, there is my home turf of Union County, which is divided between Democratic bastions like Elizabeth, Hillside and Plainfield and Republican-leaning towns like Westfield and Summit. It was the closest of the 1997 counties, with McGreevey winning by just .7%, or less than 1,000 votes ahead of Whitman. While in recent years Union County has been heavily Democratic, with every Democrat getting at least 57% of the vote, it will be a critical "bellwether" county in 2009.
Shown as a table, we can see just how critical Monmouth County was for Whitman:
Monmouth: 31,000 for Whitman
Passaic: 4,700 for McGreevey
Burlington: 5,100 for McGreevey
Atlantic: 2,400 for Whitman
Union: 900 for McGreevey
Total Plurality = 22,700 for Whitman
Without Monmouth outperforming for Whitman, 1997 would have been even closer than it turned out to be.
Other counties
The remaining counties in 1997 had fewer votes, but when put together gave Whitman her final statewide plurality (26,000). In this category are Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Salem, Sussex and Warren countries.
Of these eight counties Cumberland, Gloucester and Mercer (the last includes Trenton and Princeton) went for McGreevey, and the rest went for Whitman. Hunterdon, Sussex and Warren are heavily Republican, and can be expected to churn out Republican pluralities in 2009, as they did in 1997.
Mercer County has trended Democratic in recent years, and will be important (to a lesser degree) for Corzine to carry strongly. Cumberland and Gloucester are now bastions for the South Jersey Democratic machine (also known as the "Norcross Machine"), and can be expected to give Corzine some support as well. Cape May and Salem are incredibly small, and will almost certainly be non-factors in the statewide results.
Part II - 2009
Differences from 1997
Jon Corzine will have a slightly different "road map" to victory than Jim McGreevey had in 1997. While Corzine will also need to roll up huge margins in Essex, Hudson and Camden, his campaign has also concentrated strongly on Bergen County – and with good reason.
In the last decade, Bergen County has trended Democratic, thanks in part to a particularly odious Democratic machine led by Joe Ferriero (who was recently convicted on corruption charges). Corzine’s running mate is District 37 State Senator Loretta Weinberg, who clashed repeatedly with Ferriero and who has significant popular support in that area. Districts 36 and 38 have flipped from Republican to Democratic legislators in Trenton since 1997, which will give Corzine additional "ground support" this year. Bergen, then, can be safely classified as a tossup, since the northern parts of the county remain staunchly Republican.
The other major differences are:
1)Monmouth County will be a "base" county for Chris Christie, due to his running mate’s popularity there.
2)Mercer County will be more important for Corzine than for McGreevey, due to a increasingly strong Democratic base there. This is complicated by the large amount of state employees that live there, many of who have taken pay cuts due to budget difficulties.
3)The Hudson County Democratic machine is in disarray, following the indictments of many of its leaders (including the Mayor of Hoboken). Whether Hudson can turn out its Democratic base for Corzine remains to be seen.
Chris Christie’s path to victory has one different complication from Corzine’s: Chris Daggett. I would venture to say the Independent can probably be expected to draw from 7-10% statewide, depending on how many of his voters stick with him in the end.
Daggett is especially strong in one part of Christie’s "base" area: the heavily Republican Morris and Somerset counties. Daggett lives in Somerset County, and can be expected to pick up a good deal of votes here (in the double digits) than might otherwise go to Christie. On the other hand, Daggett’s showing in the urban areas of the state will likely be in single digits, similar to Sabrin’s in 1997.
Otherwise, Christie’s "road map" is similar to Whitman’s: roll up huge margins in Morris, Ocean, Somerset and Monmouth, plus the traditional Republican turf of Hunterdon, Warren and Sussex. This is why Christie was in Hunterdon County yesterday, and will be at a huge rally in Morristown (the center of Morris County) today with Joe "You lie!" Wilson. He benefits from Corzine’s unpopularity in most parts of the state, but will suffer from lacking a popular President to rally support in his base (as Obama will attempt to do for Corzine today in Camden and Newark.
What to look for on Election Night
So much for analysis. What county election web pages should you, the reader, frantically refresh on Tuesday night (after 8PM) in order to determine who will win the Governor’s race? Or, put another way, which of New Jersey’s 21 counties are the ones to watch on Election Night? This is my personal list, in order of importance:
1)Bergen County – Can Corzine eliminate the 30,000 vote gap that McGreevey had in 1997? In other words, has Bergen changed enough in twelve years that, together with Weinberg, it is winnable for the Democrats? Corzine probably needs to break even here in order to win. Bergen County Clerk's election results page
2)Union County – It went for McGreevey by a nose, as he lost statewide by a nose. Corzine probably needs to win by about 10% (or about 15,000 votes) to ensure victory. If Christie battles to a draw here (or even wins Union outright), it will be a long night. Union County Election Results page
3)Essex vs. Morris – which will turn out the bigger plurality in 2009? Remember that in 1997 Whitman gained 5,000 more votes in this battle, or 1/5th of her statewide plurality. Essex County Clerk's Election Results page and Morris County Election Results page
4)Somerset County – if Daggett is in double digits (percentage-wise) here, it means he is doing reasonably well statewide. If he breaks 15%, it probably means he is breaking 10% in Morris, as well as other suburban and exurban areas of the state. This could hurt Christie significantly. Somerset County Election Returns
5)Ocean vs. Hudson – the better Christie does in Ocean, the better his chances of victory. Ditto Corzine in Hudson. Ocean County Election Results and Hudson County Clerk's Office(click on "Elections" tab)
6)South Jersey – Will South Jersey Democratic leader George Norcross be able to produce a plurality for Corzine? Norcross’ "turf" includes not only Camden, but Cumberland, Gloucester, Salem, Atlantic and Burlington counties. If Corzine comes out of South Jersey with any significant margin, it may be enough for him to win.
Being a superstitious kind of pundit, I hesitate to predict a winner in such a close race. If a gun were put to my head, I would predict Corzine by a percent or two – but no more. Look for Corzine to trail, then, for much of the night, until Newark, Trenton, Camden and other urban strongholds finish their counts.
It definitely appears to me that Election Night 2009 in New Jersey will be a long one. Barring a breakthrough by either Corzine or Christie in getting their core voters out, it is entirely possible that it will be the closest statewide election since 1997. If you live in New Jersey, and want to ensure that Jon Corzine is reelected, go to Jon Corzine's website and see what you can do to help. And, of course, don’t forget to vote!