Stochastic Democracy examines polling in New Jersey, Virginia, New York, and Maine using the statistical model that produced the closest forecasts of the 2008 cycle.
Go below the fold or to the website to see discussion and graphs. Feel free to read more about our methodology, the past elections we've covered, or our past forecasting accuracy.
StochasticDemocracy.com
*********Cross Posted at StochasticDemocracy**********
Summary:
New Jersey Governor race:
Corzine (D) 's estimated two-way vote: 49.93% (+/- 1.78)
Corzine (D) 's estimated three-way vote: 44.55% (+/- 2.36)
Corzine (D) 's estimated probability of victory: 47.12
Virginia Governor race:
Deeds (D) estimated two-way vote: 43.23% (+/- 3.66)
Deeds (D) estimated probability of victory: Rounding error...
New York City Mayor Race:
Bloomberg (I) 's estimated two-way vote: 58.1% (+/- 1.47)
Bloomberg (I) 's estimated probability of victory: >99%
Maine Gay Marriage Proposition:
Prop 1's estimated support: 51.5% (+/- 3.87)
Prop 1's estimated probability of passage: 22.4%
Special Election in House District NY-23:
Not a clue...
Quick Definitions
Two-Way Vote - The two-way vote strips out third party support and only looks at how the leading candidate does compared to his strongest competitor. It has the useful property that a winning candidate will always win more then 50% of the two-way vote. Formula: 100*Candidate_1/(Candidate_1+Candidate_2)
Three-Way Vote - Like Two-way vote, but for three candidates. Formula: 100*Candidate_1/(Candidate_1+Candidate_2+Candidate_3)
New Jersey
Smoothed Corzine two-way vote and 95% confidence intervals. Smoothing done via Bayesian filtering
Smoothed Corzine three-way vote and 95% confidence intervals.
Democratic Candidate Jon Corzine is forecasted to win 49.93% (+/- 1.78) of the two-way vote and 44.55% (+/-2.36) of the three-way vote. This leaves him with a 47.1% chance of winning the election, making republican Chris Christie a (very) slight favourite.
Virginia
Smoothed Deeds two-way vote and 95% confidence intervals. Smoothing done via Bayesian filtering
Democratic Gubernatorial Candidate Creigh Deeds is set to be defeated by Republican Bob McDonnell with 43.23% of the two-way vote.
New York
Smoothed Thompson two-way vote and 95% confidence intervals. Smoothing done via Bayesian filtering
Mayor Bloomberg will annihilate his Democratic challenger Bill Thompson with an estimated 58.1% (+/-1.47) of the two-way vote.
Maine
Smoothed vote and 95% confidence intervals. Smoothing done via Bayesian filtering
Proposition 1, to repeal the State Legislature's legalization of Gay Marriage, is set to fail with 48.5% (+/-3.87) of the vote. However, this outcome is not a sure thing. We estimate that the measure has approximately a 22.4% chance of passing.
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Expect an update tomorrow to incorporate last-minute polling.
And, as a quick note, an announcement to explain the paucity of recent posts: I've been in Russia! Specifically the Math in Moscow program. Oddly enough, people here don't find election forecasting to be terribly impressive...
*********Cross Posted at StochasticDemocracy**********