Bart Stupak has become a lightning rod for media attention because of his vote on abortion in the health care debate. And Stupak represents one way for Democrat to lead a marginally-Republican Michigan congressional district.
Mark Schauer of Michigan's 7th congressional district provides an example of an alternative way for a Democrat to represent this kind of district.
While Michigan's 7th is quite a distance from Stupak's northern Michigan CD, Schauer he faces many similar challenges.
The 7th is clearly a Republican district. The Cook Partisan Voting Index lists the 7th as a Republican +2 district. For many years, the district was led by a bumbling fool of a Republican named Nick Smith. Smith was the congressman who publicly declared that he had been offered a bribe to vote for the Medicare prescription drug program.
Nick Smith Bribe: Slate
Soon after that vote, Smith retired. What ensued was one of the most enjoyable primary elections that I have ever seen. On the Republican side, six candidates fought for the R nomination. Loyalties were divided. The pro-lifers supported one candidate. The pro-business lobby supported another.
But the winner of the 2004 Republican primary was Joe Schwarz, a moderate and a doctor from Battle Creek. The Schwarz win was an incredibly complex piece of political fun. Some of the Republicans who voted for Schwarz knew him from long years of practice in the Battle Creek area. Others, but not many, supported him because they could actually be classified as moderate Republicans.
But Schwarz was also helped by a whisper campaign by unions and crossover Dems. Shoot. I was one of those Dems. The district had never been represented by a Dem since its creation in 1992. So, a decision was made to pool Dem efforts for Schwarz. The Michigan Education Association endorsed him and we helped him achieve a plurality vote in the 30s on primary night.
The general election was no contest. Schwarz faced Sharon Renier, an organic farmer from Washtenaw County. Reinier was and is a straight up liberal. Schwarz was able to gain support from the majority of the district who identify as Republicans and the residual support of Dems who crossed over in the primary. He won with support in the 60s. That was a good thing.
[Note: I have a friend who speaks Bali-Indonesian. Schwarz was an old CIA man who worked in Indonesia and also speaks Bali-Indonesian. It was perhaps my most interesting political moment to what them chat together after a debate in Bali-Indonesian in the middle of Jackson, MI.]
In 2006, conservatives unified behind one Republican candidate, Tim Walberg, a minister from the small hamlet of Tipton in Lenawee County. As a unified force, the conservatives could not be stopped. Helped by Club for Growth money and strong connections to the area's churches, Walberg won a clear victory in the primary against Congressman Schwarz.
In the general, Walberg won against Sharon Renier. Renier only lost the race by four percentage points, despite being outspent 10 to 1. This is one of the more confounding results that I have seen. Perhaps it means that the district is more Democratic than I believe it is. Maybe Republicans were lulled into a false sense of security. Renier was not really taken seriously by most observers in that election.
But I think that Walberg also ran as an extremely conservative candidate. He had a 0% voting record from NARAL and consistently voted against birth control programs. There was pretty much nothing in his voting record that could even be considered as moderate. He still won the race. But he was probably a bit moe conservative than the district.
Finally, in 2008, Mark Schauer, a Democrat, won the district. Schauer is moderately progressive. The Obama wave essentially made the 7th a 50-50 district. And Schauer won by a single percentage point with under 50% of the vote.
This made me and other district voters unusual in American politics. We have had four different congress men during the past eight years. It would be interesting to know if there are any other districts whose voters can make this claim.
Any Democratic candidate for this seat faces challenges. One is simple demographics. The district is 90% white. There are pockets of African-American population in certain sections of Battle Creek and Jackson. Adrian boasts a vibrant Mexican-American community. But together, these populations do not add up to more than eight or nine percent of the district.
The district also does not boast any true large urban areas. Jackson, Battle Creek, Hillsdale and Adrian are all small cities that generally pride themselves on their disconnection from larger urban areas like Detroit and Ann Arbor. Residents enjoy the fact that the area boasts some of the best deer hunting in the state and a diverse collection of lakes with great fishing.
The 7th cannot boast much of a college-town base. Educational institutions center on community colleges like Jackson Community College and small, Christian colleges like Albion, Adrian and Siena Heights. These colleges do not, generally, support the type of liberal activists that places like the University of Michigan would tend to engender.
In fact, the district is home to Hillsdale College. Hillsdale is one of the very few colleges in the country that does not allow students to accept government financial aid. The college was built as a repository for conservative thought. It attracts extremely conservative speakers and students. The college boasts a long list of benefactors who fund scholarships to offset the lack of federal aid.
Generally speaking, the Republicans in this district are social and religious conservatives. And, in fact, one of the divides in the district is between hard-core conservative Protestants and somewhat socially progressive Catholics from parishes in small cities like Adrian and Jackson. Other Dems can be found in exurban areas and commuter towns to the south and west of Ann Arbor and Lansing.
Schauer relies heavily on labor support. His rallies tend to be loaded with union t-shirts from the UAW, MEA and other traditional unions.
In my estimation, Mark Schauer has a voting record that is more liberal than the district he represents. He has generally been sure vote House leaders. He supported the stimulus package, the auto bailout and the recently-passed health care bill. He opposed the Stupak Amendment. Schauer does not yet have a vote that he can point to showing opposition to Democratic leaders or the more liberal wing of the Democratic Party. He may need that to entertain hopes of reelection.
But Schauer's best chance to win the district is to work on working class economics. Unemployment in most of the district's counties is between 15% and 20%. The speed with which manufacturing and other industries have left the area is breathtaking. And there is a proud tradition in some of the more rural areas of long commutes to places like Ann Arbor, Lansing and Ypsilanti for work.
Given this economic apocalypse, there is a good deal of desperation and economic angst. While there is not much love for former President Bush, many residents also blame Governor Jennifer Granholm. Targets of blame in the district are bipartisan.
President Obama did win the district. This was a medium-level surprise. However, Obama's margin tracked pretty closely to Schauer's. It was a small victory and my guess is that support for Obama within the district is now in the sub-50% range. There is a definite tendency to lump Obama in with Granholm, Bush and the Congress as a political class to be blamed en masse.
Given the lack of major urban areas in the district, media focuses mostly on local radio stations, newspapers, direct mail, billboards and old-style social networking within places like churches and unions. I can't think of a single television station within the district. Television buys would have to be scattered between Lansing, Detroit, Toledo and potentially even Grand Rapids. I have a hard time remembering any television commercials related to the district even though I have lived here for more than a decade.
The best congressmen in this district have good constituent service and make many in-person stops at various churches, colleges and public spaces. Former Republican Rep. Walberg - a declared Republican candidate - always had the reputation of good constituent service.
Schauer has been working hard to build a reputation for good district contact. He has hosted 29 town-hall style events since his election last November. He held four this past week. Here are links with coverage:
WILX TV
Detroit Free Press
Battle Creek Enquirer
Highlights:
Schauer said that is was "easy" to vote for the health care bill because it will help a lot of people in the district. He noted that while there is polarization on the issue, he hears frequently of constituents with problems paying for health care.
Schauer also said that he voted for the health care bill because the system is broken. He noted that insurance companies should support the bill because millions of additional Americans would be buying health insurance.
Schauer also said that he would not have voted for the health care bill if he thought it would lead to a government-run system or an increase in the deficit.