I'm so sick and tired of people saying we need 60 votes to pass healthcare reform. It's simply not true. Period.
Join me after the jump where I make the point that:
- While the filibuster may be an effective means to kill a bill not in the public's eye, it will be an ineffective tactic to kill Health Care Reform.
- Whether or not the filibuster is effective in killing health care reform ,it is political suicide for Republicans and could lead to even bigger Democratic gains in 2010.
1. The Filibuster Will Not Be Able to Kill HCR
It takes sixty votes to cut short a republican fillibuster, but let's not kid ourselves, one cannot fillibuster forever.
Put yourself in the seat of a politican, of any party, up for re-election in 2010 in a race that is supposed to be pretty competitive. Can you imagine the amount of pressure you'd be under as time goes by? Let's say for example that you are Senator Burr from North Carolina. You just saw your Republican colleague lose in 2008. You just saw your state go for Obama. Are you really going to be that excited to put yourself in the middle of a 24 hour a day filibuster of Health Care Reform? Sure initially you will show party loyalty and vote against cloture. But what about on day 20? What about on day 30?
Can you imagine the political hay that can be made by his challenger on this issue if Senator Burr were to continue to hold up the United States Senate and prevent an up or down vote on the most important bill to come through Congress in quite some time?
Imagine the segments that Keith and Rachel would be doing. Imagine the nightly news cutting to clips of Burr and his colleagues reading from everything from cookbooks to scripture and the Constitution in an effort to prevent millions of Americans from having access to quality care while simultaneously reducing the deficit. Imagine the amount of funds that groups like Moveon.org, FDL, ActBlue and others could raise for his opponent.
In short, as time goes on, the heat turns up. It's not enough to have 41 votes against cloture if you want to kill health care reform. You need 41 votes on day 10, day 20, day 30, day ????? if you want to kill Health Care Reform. As time goes on, the pressure ramps up and all it takes is one defection to let the bill go to a vote. Needless to say, I believe the odds are EXTREMELY in our favor on this.
I know what you are saying, Republicans can't be trusted to do the rational thing. But what about Democrats like Ben Nelson? Clearly the only thing they love more than the corporate interests they represent is their own power and "relevance". Well it's pretty hard to be relevant if you can't get re-elected.
2. A Prolonged Republican Led Filibuster is the BEST Thing That Could Ever Happen for the Democratic Party.
The Republicans are already having trouble escaping their well deserved image as the Party of No. Why not let the Republicans engrave that image on their political tombstones?
There seems to be this notion out there in the Conventional Wisdom that it will be Obama and Democrats who take the fall if a Republican Filibuster works. But is that really true?
Who will the public blame if it becomes clear that there are more than 50 votes to get Health Care Reform passed but Republicans and two or three democrats are standing in the way? And they won't just be standing in the way of health care reform, but it will become increasingly clear that they are standing up for corporate interests such as insurance companies. If Republicans want to become the party who says no to everything so that their corporate clients don't lose a sliver of their beloved power, progressives should welcome that with open arms.
Sure, the tea party crowd might actually believe that the Republicans who are filibustering health care are standing up for the little guy against a government take over of health care, but the more average people learn about the bill, and the Republican objections to the bill, the more the Republicans will be shown for who they really are.
Why are Democrats constantly in fear that if given the chance, the country will agree with the Republicans no matter how stupid their arguments are?
In Conclusion:
A filibuster will be successful in delaying HCR, but it's hard to see how the 41 votes needed to stop cloture will still be there as time goes on, and on, and on, as the reading materials get more obscure, and the media circus gets larger and more out of control.
Not only that, but Republicans will reap their own political demise and enshrine their legacy as the party of No.
If Harry Reid tables the bill because he doesn't think he has 60 votes, he should immediately resign from his leadership position. In Fact, I would let the Filibuster go on for two or three days at minimum before moving for cloture to let Republicans dig their own graves for 2010.