This past weekend, my wife and I were visited by a friendly member of a national/state organization called Clean Water Action. The man who visited was looking to drum up support for the climate bill that is currently being debated in congressional committee. That bill is part of an international effort to limit carbon dioxide emissions that will reach a crescendo this month at international climate change talks in Copenhagen, Denmark.
And I think that the entire effort will be a disaster.
I don’t think this because I oppose the effort to limit carbon dioxide. I believe that global warming is a very real threat. I read on this issue widely and I am persuaded that global temperatures have increased significantly during the past few decades. And I think that there are enough pieces of anecdotal evidence of ice shelves melting and other assorted calamities to support the idea that global warming is a significant problem.
I also believe that humans are the largest cause of global warming. Yesterday, my father and I took a walk on the new trail in Monroe, MI that connects Sterling State Park with the River Raisin National Battlefield Park.
And the DTE coal plant stacks are right there – massive. Even with new scrubbers in place, the pollution released from that facility is just astounding. In years of hiking along the shore, I have seen with my own eyes how human actions like coal emissions, water plant discharges and runoff can impact local and regional ecosystems. These actions kill fish, impair habitat and make areas less healthy.
I am convinced that this can happen on a global scale. I am also convinced that this IS happening on a global scale.
Still, the global change talks will be a disaster. And here’s why:
Pew Poll
The politics aren’t right.
I HIGHLY RECOMMEND a look at polling done by the Pew organization on American views towards climate change and proposed climate legislation.
Only 35% of Americans now believe that there is serious evidence that global temperatures are rising. That is down 11% from last year. Only 36% now believe that humans are the cause of global warming. Again, this is down 11% from last year. These declines have happened across the political spectrum. The numbers are down for Republicans, Democrats and independents.
And the study further reveals that Americans are just not focused on the issue. 55% say that they have heard nothing about the climate bill/talks. Earlier Pew polling showed that only 30% of Americans think that climate change should be a top priority for the President and Congress. The organization found that global warming ranks last in Americans’ rankings of twenty important issues faced by the nation. Even Democrats ranked global warming as only the 16th most important national issue.
Midwestern views are even more dire. Within the Great Lakes Region, there has been a twenty point drop in the percentage of people who believe that there is solid evidence of global warming. The numbers moved from 69% in 2008 to 49% in late 2009. That is astounding.
Those numbers are particularly disturbing because moderate Democratic senators/representatives from the Midwest and Appalachia will be the deciding votes on the climate bill in the Congress. The man from Clean Water Action visited my house for a reason. Both Senators Stabenow and Levin are undecided votes on the climate bill. And both are members of a coalition of coal-state Democrats who wrote a public letter to the president asking him to take the impact on manufacturing and jobs under full consideration.
So, I do not believe that climate bill supporters are anywhere close to having the votes to pass a bill. And this means that any promises that the President makes in Copenhagen later this month will just be talk.
The one bit of hope in the Pew poll is that 50% of Americans still want a national cap on carbon dioxide emissions.
This means that there is a significant chunk of Americans who want a carbon cap, but DO NOT believe that there is solid evidence of global warming. Environmentalists really should let that sink in. Why would anyone want a carbon cap without believing in the threat of global warming? Well, maybe its all of those people who live near coal plants and see how destructive they can be to wildlife, local ecosystems and community health.
President Obama, I believe, has missed an opportunity so far to appeal to these environmental localists/moderates. It is my belief that if Obama pushed nuclear power, clean coal and large-scale conservation programs in addition to alternative energy, he could recapture that 15% to 20% of Americans who do not fully believe in global warming, but do want a carbon cap. He would also do well to make the carbon cap arguments as localized as possible. The reason to pass a carbon cap is not to stop global warming. It is so that the fish in the local park are healthy, so that the baby just born across the street doesn’t get asthma and so that state park on the lake nearby doesn’t have pollution in its bottom muck.
Environmentalism is local and immediate.
I also believe that President Obama has been remiss in NOT speaking truth to left-leaning leaders in the United States and around the world. One of the barriers to a realistic and effective climate bill will be those who find it difficult to support nuclear power, natural gas-fueled autos, clean coal and jobs-related concessions to industrial communities.
President Obama has massive credibility with left-leaning political leaders around the world. He has the stature to tell these groups that they need to support nukes, cleaner traditional energy and economic support for manufacturing communities. He hasn’t really done that so far. This means that many are not being prepared for the compromise that will bring meaningful climate change legislation and agreements.
As I said, the climate change bill and talks are heading toward disaster.