Ignore the exit poll topline numbers, since those are always bunk. However, the issue stuff is always much better, and while the numbers might shift some as the data is massaged to reflect the actual results, these numbers are well within the exit poll's margin of error:
This is not a nationalized election. Democratic special election victories in early 2004 had no bearing on the beating we took that November, while a solid Republican showing in MA-05 in 2007 had no bearing on the trashing they took in November of 2008. These were not nationalized elections, and focused mostly on local issues.
Republicans will spin any gains as a repudiation of Obama, but they risk the same level of delusion that I suffered when I thought winning special elections in South Dakota and Kentucky meant anything more than "good Democratic candidates running on local issues beat shitty Republican ones."
In Virginia, McDonnell (R) was by far a better candidate than the Democrats' Deeds. And while NJ Gov. Jon Corzine continues to suffer from approval ratings in the 30s, the race is only competitive because the Republican has turned out to be a horrendous candidate. Incumbents with approval ratings in the 30s have no business winning reelection.
All that aside, the race I most care about tonight is Question 1. I'd immediately trade the rest away in a heartbeat to preserve equality in Maine.