Cross-posted at www.angryyoungdem.vox.com
The off-year election is over. The Republicans will want to make this a referendum on Obama, but, to the media's credit (outside Fox News) they are not letting them get away with it. The larger reality is that this election was much more about the shortcomings of political parties, and the Republican Party in general, than it was about Obama.
First, Creigh Deeds was a poor candidate, and he always was a poor candidate. He came in with mediocre name recognition and a history of losing statewide elections. He ran to the middle, if not the right, and failed to inspire anyone. You can't call this a referendum on Obama when the Democratic candidate stated he was not "an Obama Democrat."
More than this though, it would stretch the imagination to suggest that an election in Virginia could signal the rebirth of the GOP. Virginia was certainly tending purple recently, but one does not have to go back too far into history to see a Virginia that was dominated by the GOP. Bragging about a win in Virginia demonstrates the weakness of the GOP as opposed to its strength.
The GOP win in New Jersey is a little harder to explain away. Corzine is in the Obama mold, and the White house threw their weight strongly into this race. The failure of Obama's support to tip this race in Corzine's direction against an empty suit Christie does say something about the strength of the White House. But NJ does have a history of electing Republican governors, especially in times of economic difficulty.
I was born in 1976. Since that time, New Jersey has elected 7 governors. 4 of them have been Democrats and 3 of them have been Republicans. If you go back one more election, it evens out at 4-4, and if you go back to Roosevelt, it numbers 6-5 Democrats. New Jersey has high taxes across the board, and in a poor economic climate, they go higher. As a suburb on New York, the state has alaso been hit hard by the layoffs in the financial and legal community. For anyone with knowledge of New Jersey political history, the name that this election will scream out is not Obama, but Jim Florio.
Finally, there is THE story of this election. New York's special congressional election in the 23rd district is a lesson in the danger of political parties that George Washington warned about. Republicans have controlled this seat since the late 1880s. Read that again, for over 100 years, no Democrat has ever held that seat. Many of those Republicans have been in the moderate mold, for example, the last Republican office-holder, John McHugh. But despite the political shifts that have occured in the last 130 years, nothing has ever prevented a Republican from representing this district. Enter Sarah Palin and political purity.
Once upon a time, elected representatives represented the people and not a larger political party. John McHugh's moderation may not have always been popular with the national party, but it represented his electorate. In 2009, the Republican leadership of the 23rd district selected a candidate that best represented the people of this district. She was Dierdre Scozzafava. Problem was that while she was the best Republican to represent the sensibilities of the 23rd District, she did not pass the Palin/Pawlenty/Limbaugh litmus test of who can and can't be a Republican. Thus, they endorsed the Conservative Party candidate, Douglas Hoffman. Hoffman perfectly represented the Republican orthodoxy. Problem is that the district is not a Republican orthodox district.
Palin, Pawlenty, Limbaugh and the rest, want to pretend that a candidate that would win in Colorado Springs is the same candidate that can win in St. Lawrence, New York. But if any party is going to be a national party, there cannot be a unanimity of belief. This is as true for the Democrats as it is for the Republicans. The difference is that Democrats understand this lesson. Sometimes, Democrats needs to have a perfect voting record with the NRA because that is what their citizens want, despite the fact that, as a national party, we are more the party of gun control than gun clubs.
If I were a Republican today, I would certainly be happy about the victories in New Jersey and Virginia. However, I would not lose sight of the Forrest for the trees. These victories can not and should not over shadow the sickness that revealed itself in New York 23. If the Republicans ever want to take back the House of Representatives, they are going to have to endorse candidates that are right for their district even if they are not right for party leadership.
The Obama opposition stuck their neck out in New York 23. The 2012 conservatives like Palin and Pawlenty, the wackjobs like Limbaugh, and they Teabaggers said Doug Hoffman is our candidate because he is the model of a 2009 Republican (even if he looks nothing like Edmund Burke's Republican). They said we know better than the Republicans of the 23rd district who is best to represent this district. As a result, Democrats are laughing today, the sting of losses in Virginia and New Jersey soothed, and Bill Owens is on his way to Congress to (hopefully) vote in favor of health care reform.