What's been the underlying theme of the national press coverage of the 2009 election? I'm sure you've seen it or heard it.
NPR: GOP Victories Offer A Warning To Democrats
New York Times: Republicans Seek Impetus From Victories in N.J. and Va.
Washington Post: Contests serve as warning to Democrats: It's not 2008 anymore
Associated Press (via Seattle Times): GOP sweep: Big governor victories in Virginia, N.J.
And Republican National Committee chair Michael Steele crows, based on the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial results, that the GOP is "transcendent".
They couldn't be more wrong.
The outcomes of yesterday's pair of gubernatorial elections, disappointing as they were, were absolutely typical behavior for the electorates of the Garden State and the Old Dominion. Yesterday's results were, in short, business as usual.
Why do I say this? Well, consider the following table:
Election Years | President | VA Governor | NJ Governor |
---|
1976 / 1977 | Jimmy Carter | John N. Dalton | Brendan Byrne |
1980 / 1981 | Ronald Reagan | Chuck Robb | Thomas Kean |
1984 / 1985 | Ronald Reagan | Gerald L. Baliles | Thomas Kean |
1988 / 1989 | George H.W. Bush | Douglas Wilder | James Florio |
1992 / 1993 | Bill Clinton | George Allen | Christine Todd Whitman |
1996 / 1997 | Bill Clinton | Jim Gilmore | Christine Todd Whitman |
2000 / 2001 | George W. Bush | Mark Warner | Jim McGreevey |
2004 / 2005 | George W. Bush | Tim Kaine | Jon Corzine |
2008 / 2009 | Barack Obama | Bob McDonnell | Chris Christie |
The table displays the results of the last nine presidential elections, as well as the outcomes of the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections a year later. Each cell's background color indicates the political party of the victor in that election, using the now-standard blue for Democrats and red for Republicans. Do you see the pattern?
In every single one of the last nine elections, a year after the presidential election Virginia has elected a Governor of the "other" party. If the President is a Republican, the new Governor is a Democrat. And vice versa. Every time since 1977.
By comparison, New Jersey is a piker. They've been doing exactly the same thing, but merely in the last six election cycles. They've followed this pattern only since 1989.
Thus, yesterday's electoral results in New Jersey and Virginia simply followed hoary tradition in those two states. A consistent pattern retained its consistency. Certainly, there were additional factors that made the elections interesting, that influenced the margins in the two contests. But the outcomes were fully in keeping with the way politics works in the two states.
Will you ever see any such analysis on your television? Will you ever hear any such analysis on the radio? Will you ever read such analysis in the newspaper (if you do, in fact, still read a newspaper)?
Not bloody likely.
[Originally posted on my blog]