I've been reading a lot in the last several weeks about how Bush pushed through his agenda with many fewer votes in the Senate than Democrats have today. Americablog has today's latest example, which is worth considering. Take a look at his list:
- John Ashcroft nomination
- Iraq war resolution
- Repeated Iraq funding resolutions
- 2001 & 2003 tax cuts
- Patriot Act
- Alito
- John Roberts
- Medicare Part D
The first thing that jumps out at me is that several of these (Iraq War, Patriot Act) happened in the direct aftermath of 9/11, when Bush's approval rating was through the roof. Not a trivial matter. Also, there's not much on this list that can't EASILY make it through reconcilliation.
But there's a very important lesson to take from that list which I haven't seen argued anywhere. It involves the signature Bush program, tax cuts.
The most important thing about the tax cuts is that it appears in the list TWICE. Not two separate line items, but as 2 separate events...one in 2001 and one in 2003.
The lesson there is pretty simple. Bush didn't get all he wanted the first time around. The 2001 Tax Cuts were pretty significant, but were also only the first bite of the apple. (The 2001 cuts also introduced the 10 year sunset, which was specifically necessary because reconciliation was used and required manuvering past the Byrd rule. Wonder how Republicans feel about that now?) The 2003 tax cuts simply expanded on what the 2001 tax cuts put into place initially, with more changes to marginal rates, the expanded AMT changes, estate taxes, and so on.
On the Democratic side, we've continually expanded existing programs, like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, SCHIP, and so on. None of those programs included all their current components initially. But they do share one thing in common...they passed an initial framework. That framework can be expanded later. Passing nothing doesn't accomplish that.
Is this bill everything I want? Not even close. But many of the key missing pieces (additional subsidies, strong Public Option, Medicare buy-in) can be added in the ensuing years. Maybe as soon as 2010-11.
So, the lesson of the Bush Tax Cuts is we should take the first bite at the apple. If we do, there will be opportunities to take more bites in the future. If we don't, it won't matter what happens in 2010 or 2012.