I have noticed some speculation about tomorrow's weather and who a winter storm could help or hurt. Anyhow, I found the following comments in
The Union Leader that I think are helpful.
Weather forecasters were predicting snow, especially for the southern tier, for primary day, though the Granite State could dodge a major snowstorm.
Edwards spokesman Colin Van Ostern said he had no idea how the snow might affect his candidate's chances, adding, "Most New Hampshire voters know how to handle the snow."
Snow forecast for primary day tomorrow should have a "very, very minimal effect" on voter turnout, according to Secretary of State William Gardner, the state's top election official.
He recalled blizzard conditions in 1984 but "when I got to the polling place, there were at least 50 people outside the door."
"I really didn't think it had any effect," he said, "and I expect the same to hold true of it snows on Tuesday."
American Research Group pollster Dick Bennett, who has been polling for primaries since the 1970s, also recalled 1984.
He surmised, "If it's icy and the likelihood of slipping is high, older voters won't vote. But if it snows, they will vote, but it may be too much of a hassle for younger people."
But overall, he said, "I don't think snow makes that much of a difference, but ice does.
"In 1984, it was a snowstorm that turned into an ice storm in the southern tier," he said. "Older voters waited to go vote but by the time it came to vote it was icy and some of them didn't want to go out. That helped Gary Hart defeat Walter Mondale."
My personal opinion is that snowy weather will depress turnout among younger voters, who I think are overrepresented in a lot of the poll internals I am seeing anyway. Younger voters (especially twenty-somethings) routinely turn out at much lower than they claim they will to pollsters.
Obligatory poll!