After a one-day hiatus to take care of the breaking results in the Massachusetts Senate primary (which wound up being, admittedly, more than a little anticlimactic), the Wrap is back with a look at the last two days in polling and campaign news. Even with the double-up of coverage, it is still, on balance, a synopsis of two fairly slow days.
SC-Sen: DeMint, Surprisingly, Is A Bit Vulnerable in 2010
As promised last week, the team over at PPP polled the Palmetto State over the weekend. In a bit of an eye-opener, they spy a potentially vulnerable Senate seat that virtually everyone assumed would be secure for the GOP. In a poll matching freshman Senator Jim DeMint with a generic Democrat, DeMint only leads the generic Dem by nine points (47-38). Perhaps his efforts to mold himself as a national conservative icon is part of the reason for his vulnerability--more South Carolinians thought DeMint was working on becoming a national conservative leader than thought he was working on getting things done for South Carolina. In another surprise from the South Carolina poll: Barack Obama actually scores higher job approval there (46%) than he received in the state in 2008. This is, in the most recent polling, a fairly uncommon occurrence.
CT-Sen: Dodd Still Deeply Vulnerable, According to Rasmussen
Rasmussen Reports has gone into the state of Connecticut to test longtime Democratic Senator Chris Dodd's current political health as he looks at a thinning field of opponents. The prognosis, according to the latest Ras poll, is not too good. Dodd gets thumped by former Republican Congressman Rob Simmons (48-35), and also trails Linda McMahon and Peter Schiff. President Obama still maintains a 57% approval rating in the state, suggesting that the numbers are not necessarily a reflection of an anti-Democratic/anti-Obama backlash.
OH-Gov: Another Rasmussen Poll, Another Huge GOP Lead
What does it say about a pollster when there is a series of articles written trying to explain why their polling results are far different from...well...everyone else? Well, this will do nothing to silence that speculation: Rasmussen polls Ohio, and gives the Republican challenger (John Kasich) a nine-point lead (48-39) over Democratic Governor Ted Strickland. Looking at the recent history of Buckeye State polling, no other pollster this year has given Kasich the lead, although a few have had the race tied.
IN OTHER NEWS....
- Just a semi-weekly reminder that you can now catch my observations on politics and other matters on Twitter, as I have finally surrendered to the Twitter Gods.
- WA-03: In a surprise that will no doubt feed the "Democrats are Doomed" narrative, six-term Democratic Congressman Brian Baird announced his retirement this evening. Baird, who has been re-elected easily in a district that is actually fairly evenly split between the two parties on the federal level, was elected in 1998. He becomes the third House retirement in as many weeks for the Dems in unsafe territory, though the GOP still leads in open seats to defend overall with 12 to 10 for the Democrats.
- KS-02: In a state that is used to fratricidal politics (see: What's The Matter With Kansas?), it is perhaps not surprising that the newest Republican in the congressional delegation would feel the heat. Lynn Jenkins (whom you might remember from the "Great White Hope" idiocy a while back) is getting primaried from the right by a potentially formidable foe in state senator Dennis Pyle. Jenkins has had to win ideologically split primaries before, as she needed to seize the GOP nomination in 2008 away from former Congressman Jim Ryun, who was considered the more conservative GOP candidate in that race.
- OH-Sen: David Plouffe is not a native of the Buckeye State, but he is a nationally recognized name with Democrats by virtue of his stewardship of Barack Obama's winning 2008 presidential campaign. Interestingly, he is now getting into the endorsement game, electing to throw his support in the Democratic Primary for the open Ohio U.S. Senate seat to state Lt. Governor Lee Fisher. Fisher is locked in a competitive Democratic primary with Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner.
- CT-Sen: This has not been a happy week for longtime incumbent Senator Chris Dodd. As you read earlier, a new poll has him trailing badly in his bid for re-election. On top of that, his re-election prospects have become so sketchy that Dodd is now fielding questions from members of the press as to whether or not state Democratic officials have asked him to retire next year rather than seek re-election. Remember, this was attempted (successfully) in Kentucky, where the state GOP, led by Mitch McConnell, made it abundantly clear that they wanted someone other than incumbent Senator Jim Bunning representing the GOP in 2010.
- ND-Sen: After dying down for several months, the rumor mill is now churning again that popular Republican Governor John Hoeven is eyeing a race with incumbent Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan. Hotline On Call, however, talked to "insiders" who conceded that a Hoeven bid is still a longshot. Being a politico who is universally known in the state, Hoeven has the luxury of waiting, and it appears that any decision on the race may well wait until after the New Year.
- PA-11: As expected, Hazleton Mayor (and two-time Congressional aspirant) Lou Barletta announced today that he will take a third crack at Democratic Congressman Paul Kanjorski in the Pennsylvania 11th. Kanjorski's campaign team wasted little time in...ahem...welcoming Barletta to the race:
"Hearing that Mr. Barletta is running for Congress again reminds me of what Yogi Berra said," Kanjorski campaign spokesman Ed Mitchell said in a statement. "‘This is like deja vu all over again.’"
Mitchell added: "Having been rejected by the voters twice, I guess Barletta is looking for strike three and you’re out. The Congressman is busy reforming the financial industry, bringing jobs to the district and providing for affordable health care that protects Medicare.
Barletta was defeated by double digits by Kanjorski in 2002, but the race was considerably closer in 2008, when the Democrat was expected to be defeated but perservered with a 51-49 victory over Barletta.
- PA-07: After working hard to clear the GOP field for former US Attorney Pat Meehan, it looks like the Republicans might have a wrench thrown into their plans by the possible candidacy for former local Fox News anchor Dawn Stensland. Over at the site PA2010, author Dan Hirschhorn offers an interesting potential motive for a Stensland bid: Meehan's U.S. Attorney's office were the ones that prosecuted Stensland's husband, Larry Mendte, for hacking and leaking emails from a co-worker with which he was having an extramarital affair. Stensland did not confirm or deny rumors in her interest in the race.
- SC-Gov: While a final vote before the legislature as a whole remains ahead of him, it looks like embattled Republican Governor Mark Sanford will avoid impeachment in his final year of service. A committee of seven legislators in the Judiciary Committee voted 6-1 against impeaching the Governor for the myriad of missteps related to his sexual romp to South America last summer. In other Palmetto State gubernatorial news, it is worth noting that the crew over at PPP have polling numbers on the open-seat race to replace Sanford due out tomorrow, and they tweeted that their numbers are reasonably similar to Rasmussen's numbers last weekend, which had Democrat Jim Rex in a reasonably competitive position against leading Republicans.
