In my recent piece The End of the World As We Know It I included a bit of silliness from Old White Guy newspaper pundit Adam Smith:
One story line to keep an eye on as the 2010 Democratic primary for Senate develops: Obama vs. Clinton, the sequel. Bill Clinton headlined a fundraiser in Miami for U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, D-Miami, who is running and backed Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile, we hear a lot of enthusiasm from President Obama's money folks in Florida for state Sen. Dan Gelber, D-Miami Beach, who endorsed Obama.
I thought the comment sounded like some spin fed to Smith from Gelber’s campaign manager, Steve Schale. In the earlier post I had a few scathing comments about it but didn’t bother to really analyze how STUPID it was.
Let me do that here.
When we analyze politics it is sometimes helpful to think in terms of Brands and Psychodynamics (or Political Theater).
Now, that comment was meant to associate Gelber with the Obama Brand and Meek with the Clinton Brand. I suppose the implication being that since Obama eventually beat Clinton for the presidential nomination, Gelber would beat Meek.
But, this race occurs in FLORIDA, not the whole nation. In the Presidential Preference Primary that took place early in 2008 here in Florida, Hillary Clinton beat Obama decisively, 50%-33%. In other words, the Clinton Brand is quite strong in Florida and there is nothing wrong with being associated with it. In fact, it’s a plus.
Now, during the presidential election, Obama beat McCain here in Florida, but that was against a candidate whose Brand had pretty much turned to mush. That’s not the same as beating the Clinton Brand.
But, we also need to look at Psychodynamics. During Obama’s entire presidential campaign, the issue of being The First Black President was inspiring people and motivating them in special ways not typical of most campaigns. Isn’t it obvious that Dan Gelber cannot benefit from this effect, even if he did support Obama while Meek supported Clinton. The fact that Meek will be The First Black Senator from Florida means that Psychodynamics also favor him over Gelber.
So, if Schale DID feed Smith that little tidbit, it was pretty stupid, since either way, bringing up either Clinton or Obama in voters’ minds favors Meek (especially since Bill Clinton is helping him campaign and the entire alumni of FAMU, his alma mater, is strongly behind him!!!!)
But, everyone shouts, what if Pam Iorio jumps in? First, as I’ve already shown, the more candidates that enter the race, the more that favors Meek, the candidate with the strongest organization and ability to raise money.
Now, if Pam Iorio is in, then the Psychodynamics that occurred during the primary where many women voted for Hillary out of support for the idea of breaking the glass ceiling, would indeed be in play. But, Iorio has NO Brand association with Clinton. She has been resolutely non-partisan in much of what she did and actually supported Obama.
In other words, in voters’ minds, these two competing issues tend to cancel each other out and we’re left with a sort of wishy-washy feel about her if she enters the US Senate race. This is compounded by the fact that all of her experience is executive in nature, not legislative. All of the pieces are wrong, they don’t fit together to make a coherent whole.
But, what if Iorio runs for governor against Crist? Ah, now that’s different!
First, the Psychodynamics are clear. She would be The First Woman Governor. YES!! Do it Girl! Let’s have some FEMALE EMPOWERMENT here. (BTW, that’s what the movie Juno was all about).
And here the Brand associations are quite different. Crist is stuck with the albatross Republican Brand which is quickly devolving into the World of Rush and Palin. But the Democratic Brand is ascendant! And the 2010 elections will be watershed elections for the Democrats here in Florida if they field a united slate of state wide candidates that campaigns together under a banner of Taking Back Democracy from lobbyists and an unresponsive legislature.
What about Crist’s popularity? As I pointed out in my Florida Politics post, we need to remember what Papa Bush’s ratings were after the First Gulf War. But then the economy went just a LITTLE bad and Bill Clinton was elected president in 1992.
Folks, just look at how the property insurance crisis is playing out. If a hurricane hits this year or next, it’s all over for Charlie. Look at the unemployment rates. The economy here in Florida is more than a LITTLE bad.
I want to say right here, Kendrick Meek will be the next US Senator from Florida, and Pam Iorio will be the next Governor.
That’s right, we Democrats are going to make that happen. Let’s have fun doing it.
CROSS POSTED FROM FLAPOLITICS.COM