A few days ago, Specter insisted he'd never leave the GOP. His position is starting to soften.
Sen. Arlen Specter said Tuesday that he will not run for reelection in 2010 as a Democrat, but might run as an Independent.
The Pennsylvania Republican has been under tremendous pressure from the GOP base since being one of just three Republicans to vote for the Democratic-led stimulus package last month.
He said in an interview with The Hill that the role of the Republican Party in Washington is too vital for him to switch to the Democratic side.
“I’m staying a Republican because I think I have a more important role to play there,” he said. “I think the United States very desperately needs a two-party system. ... And I’m afraid that we’re becoming a one-party system, with Republicans becoming just a regional party.”
At the same time, Specter said he is open to the possibility of running as an Independent with the understanding that he would caucus with Republicans, just as Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) did with Democrats in 2006.
Though he left that option on the table, he suggested it would be a last resort.
It's clear Specter is realizing he's toast in a GOP primary, and is starting to consider his options. Assuming Pennsylvania has a sore-loser law (that would prevent Specter from running as an independent after he lost his primary), Specter can guarantee a shot in the general if he bypasses the GOP contest altogether. And once there, labor could provide him the organizational muscle he'd lack as a party candidate. (The AFL-CIO and SEIU will have his back).
Now would the Dems back off, a la Bernie Sanders, if Specter ran as an independent? No, at least not with Specter saying that he'd continue to caucus with the GOP. Meanwhile, Republicans will run a full-throated effort with Club for Growth President Pat Toomey or similar candidate. That leaves our side to run a real Democrat, without labor support, but ostensibly with his or her party machinery in tow.
But who would raise money for Specter? Pennsylvania ain't a cheap state. And he would be ideologically squeezed both from the state's dwindling (and radicalizing) Republican stock, and a genuine Democrat pledged to the Democratic agenda (as opposed to Mitch McConnell's). Running as an indie gives Specter some breathing room, but it's no panacea for his woes. The only real solution to his predicament, assuming survival trumps his stated desire to keep the Republicans alive outside the South, is a party switch, which would bring with it the Democratic machine and fundraising.
We're far from that point, but these latest developments proves Specter is aware of his predicament and is wavering in his allegiance to his party's ticket. If he casts a vote against EFCA, then he still loses as a Republican, and would have nothing to run with as an independent. It'd be the end of him. If he votes for EFCA, he's going to face a GOP backlash of epic proportions: A pro-EFCA vote is a vote for a stronger progressive movement, and for the GOP, that makes it legitimately a life-and-death situation. Specter's vote would strike at the very survival of the his party. It would get ugly. Uglier, perhaps, than anything we've seen out of the GOP thus far. (Which is saying quite a bit.)
That would be his cue to switch. He could give his "I didn't leave the GOP, the GOP left me" speech, but in reality, it would be "the GOP tarred and feathered me, and then beat me to within an inch of my life".
If it was up to me, the guy stays a Republican after his EFCA vote and gets blown out in the GOP primary, leaving the Democrats to easily take out Toomey in the general. But then again, I'm not interested in Specter's survival. I assume Specter is.
Update: Pennsylvania does have a sore-loser law. So Specter has to choose whether to run as a Republican or independent. He can't pull a Lieberman.