Oregon Democrats currently hold 60% of seats in both the state senate and state house, with 18/30 and 36/60, respectively. One might be reasonable in thinking that, since Oregon was recently something of a swing state, this might be as far as Democrats can get in Oregon. One would be wrong.
Every seat Democrats currently hold in the state legislature has more registered Democrats than Republicans. There are an additional three seats in each house where there are more registered Democrats than Republicans, and all are up in 2010, meaning if Democrats only take and hold those seats with Democratic registration advantages, they would hold 70% of the state senate, and 65% of the state house.
State House
Much has changed since January 2008, when we were getting ready for the 2008 elections. For one thing, the Obama campaign registered a ridiculous number of new voters.
District 20
This is Vicki Berger’s seat which includes parts of Salem and extends out southwest to Monmouth. I’m not all that familiar with Salem or with Vicki Berger, and know that she is perceived as somewhat of a moderate, but she has a bill that has upset many people that would require pit bull owners to get something like a million dollars of insurance in case their dog hurts someone, with severe penalties.
In January 2008, Vicki Berger’s district had 11,919 Democrats and 13,280 Republicans.
Today, Vicki Berger’s district has 14,925 Democrats and 13,621 Republicans.
This presents a real opportunity to move the district.
District 37
This district is composed of a bit of Lake Oswego, with heavier doses of West Linn and Tualatin. It used to be a fairly Republican district, but with Washington County turning blue in the blink of an eye, and Clackamas County perhaps doing the same a bit more slowly, this district now has a bit of a Democratic registration advantage, of just under a thousand voters.
In January 2008, Scott Bruun’s district had 11,943 Democrats and 14,030 Republicans.
Today, Scott Bruun’s district has 15,009 Democrats and 14,022 Republicans.
Scott Bruun represents the district, and has made a name for himself as quite a moderate Republican. However, that’s no reason to let him slide in a district with more Ds than Rs (okay, I never think there’s a good reason to let a Republican slide). On election night in 2008, it appeared that the Democratic candidate was leading, but she fell behind over the course of the counting. This is a district we narrowly lost, and a district that we should be able to win. And it is trending our way. There’s no reason not to mount a major challenge here. One issue which may be able to be used be an adept candidate against Bruun- Bruun is a strong proponent of creating a sales tax, which most people across the state oppose, but at the same time that might be limited value, since that issue tends to cut across party lines in both ways.
District 39
Across the river from District 37 is District 39. I grew up around this district, so I know it pretty well. It is composed of Oregon City, Canby, Barlow, and some of the territory south of those cities, entirely within Clackamas County. The last Democratic state representative from Canby was Kurt Schrader, who in 2002, when the newly redrawn districts were up for election for the first time, opted instead to run for the state senate, and was easily elected in the new 20th senate district. In 2008 he elected to run for the US House in response to Darlene Hooley’s retirement from representing the 5th district, and was also easily elected. His wife, Martha Schrader, was appointed by the Clackamas County Commission to replace him in the state senate. Martha has plenty of experience in her own right, as she ran for the 39th district in 2002, coming within 900 votes, and became a Clackamas County Commissioner in 2004.
In 2002, when Martha Schrader came so close, instead Wayne Scott, also of Canby, won. He soon became the Republican leader in the state house, serving under speaker Karen Minnis while they were still in majority. He opted not to run for re-election after they’d lost the majority, and Clackamas County Commissioner Bill Kennemer, a Republican of Oregon City, and Toby Forsberg, a Democrat of Oregon City, ran for the seat as their parties’ nominees.
Kennemer had the advantage of having been in the state senate back in 1989 and the early ‘90s, and being a county commissioner since then, so he was virtually an incumbent. Forsberg did not have such an advantage, but did have a surge in Democratic voter registration largely as a result of the Obama campaign’s efforts. On election night it appeared that Forsberg had won, but over the next few days Kennemer’s position improved, and he had pulled it out. Forsberg had a hell of a campaign, and came within 500 votes.
In January 2008, this district had 12,581 Democrats and 13,480 Republicans.
Today, Bill Kennemer’s district has 14,642 Democrats and 13,748 Republicans.
I think the best hope for taking this district is to find a Democrat from Canby, while the Democratic base is in Oregon City. I think someone who is involved in the community in Canby could cut their losses there, while working on turning out the Democratic base in Oregon City.
If Democrats were only able to hold our own and take these three seats, the house would be 39-21, and we'd have 65% of the seats.
Next up, the higher-hanging fruit:
District 7
District 15
District 19
District 24
District 26
District 59
Part I, about the State Senate