Specter was finished, to begin with. There is no doubt whatever about that. The register of his political burial was signed by the voters. Toomey signed it.
Beyond taking liberties with Dickens, it is a hypothetical situation that Toomey is hoping for. But, will that actually get him a seat in the Senate?
Normally, I would keep from making predictions on a race this soon, but this one is far too tempting. I understand completely why many pundits are figuring that Specter is finished. My problem is that none of them seem to be saying more about the reasons why.
Unlike many of the 2010 races, the Specter one isn't just about politics. As a Pennsylvanian, I know that it isn't always about the politics for our voters. Specifically, I remember a State Senator in my own backyard who ended up losing his seat in a race that shouldn't have even been close. He was a well-liked gentleman, and his opponent was coming out from under financial scandals on the local political scene. He lost at least in part because many voters realized that although he had done great work for the people over the years, he was getting burnt out.
So I'm left thinking about Specter, and what I would do if I were working on his campaign. He isn't young, has been battling cancer, and has been essentially abandoned by his party for being "too moderate." He can't resign or back out of the race at this point, even if he wants to retire. In the primary, he will be facing a radical right-wing ideologue. The Democrats have only been whispering about potential candidates for his seat, but in all likelihood, if he doesn't win the primary, they will opt for a conservative candidate - a moderate like he has become.
Keeping this in mind, and also remembering that Pennsylvania came through for Obama by a slightly greater margin than I expected, I suppose I would tell Specter to have fun. Treat the primary like a farewell tour of sorts, since he wouldn't be able to run as an Independent in the general election if he loses the primary. But most importantly, I would advise him to point out to his constituents how different he is from his adversary.
Pennsylvanians are a funny bunch when it comes to the polls. Gov. Rendell learned that one when he accused his constituents of being too closed-minded and bigoted to vote for a black man or a white woman. Toomey will be counting on a backlash against the administration, and some semblance of loyalty from the GOP voters. Honestly, I don't believe he can count on either. I've watched too many State level elections here with radical religious right-wing candidates like Toomey going in with wonderful numbers, and coming out with under 40% of the vote. Even if a Pennsylvanian agrees with your belief system, that doesn't mean you'll get the vote. Maybe it's the Quaker background, or a deep seated sense of independence. It doesn't really matter. The fact is that the only regions Toomey can definitely count on here don't have anywhere near the population density required to carry the general election. And I'd be saying that even if the GOP wasn't in splinters.
So, for now, I'm betting that Specter is reaching the end of his political career, but his ghost will haunt Toomey. The people will go for someone not entirely unlike their current Senator. After all, they already know what it's like to have someone like Toomey. They had Santorum, and I still remember his tears when he lost.