This question popped into my mind a moment ago, so I thought I'd put it to the group.
Arlen Specter is switching parties pretty clearly for electoral purposes. In his announcement earlier today, he not only cited polling and the 200,000 Pennsylvanians who switched from R to D, but said that despite the switch his politics, he's going to try to stick to his center-right guns.
Is there anything keeping him from switching back to the Republicans after the election? You know, short of making enemies left and right?
I have a few more thoughts below the fold. Let me know what you all think. There is a poll as well.
I don't have too much more to say here--I don't know Specter well, and am eager to defer to some longtime Pennsylvanians for analysis. But here's the potential scenario as I see it.
Specter switches to the D side until 2010, during which time (according to the excellent number-crunching by Nate Silver) he's likely to edge ever-so-slightly leftwards. Nevertheless, this isn't set in stone, and even if he slides somewhat to the left for the election, this would be no different than Specter's previous habit of sliding to the right in the run-up to past elections either.
If Specter decides he isn't happy on the Dem side of the fence, could he switch back? The obvious answer is, yes, of course he could. He can switch to the Alaskan Independence Party if he wants, but that doesn't mean he's going to do it.
First of all, I'm fairly certain (and I eagerly await correction on this if I'm wrong) that there are no high-profile politicians (that is, Governors, U.S. Senators, or U.S. Representatives) who have switched parties twice, especially in the space of two years. So I'm pretty sure Specter would be the first to do so. That alone would get him a lot of attention, and most likely rather negative attention. Opportunism has a nasty habit of confirming people's ire toward politicians.
Nevertheless, there's a first time for everything, and if Specter makes it through 2010 unscathed, and Pat Toomey is no longer a threat, the only thing that could stop him is:
*Angering a heck of a lot of Pennsylvanian Dems, who would be able to shake their fists and write angry letters, and then have to wait 6 years to do anything about it (by which point, the sting might have worn off for the more moderate voters)
*Risking some friends among Joe Biden, Ed Rendell, Harry Reid, et al
The GOP would probably be a little confused, but would no doubt have to bow and scrape a little to welcome Arlen back to the fold. The hard-core Republicans would froth at the mouth a little, but likely wouldn't argue with an extra vote in (if all goes well in 2010 for us) rather dire straits for them in Congress.
And if, come 2016, when Specter might be taken to task for his flip-floppery, he might (be it age, health, or general politics fatigue) might simply bow out rather than get voted out, having angered both the left and the right of PA. Something of a last laugh there, I suppose.
So, all in all, what do we think? The comments and the poll below are yours to command!