That was the title of an article six years ago by Carlton Meyer. In it, Mr. Meyer lays out a very cogent argument why the North Koreans are not a legitimate threat and that South Korea could defend itself from them all by themselves.
It seemed a good article to draw upon since people have been stressed out by the latest breaking diary.
Details of why North Korea is a paper tiger below the fold:
North Korea is a paper tiger because frankly, their army is only real on paper:
North Korean soldiers suffer from malnutrition and rarely train due to a scarcity of fuel and ammo... most of the North Korean military equipment is over 30 years old and much is inoperable due to a lack of maintenance...North Korean soldiers no longer train for war, but spend most hours harvesting crops, while their old aircraft and ancient tanks sit idle from a lack of fuel and parts. In 1999, Lt. Gen. Patrick Hughes, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told Congress that discipline in the North Korean army had collapsed, and that refugees report soldiers stealing food at gun point. Nighttime satellite pictures reveal few lights in the North because of a lack of electricity.
Of course, most people are worried about nuclear weapons, but even that isn't a likely scenario, as the author points out:
Even if North Korea employs a few crude nuclear weapons, using them would be suicidal since it would invite instant retaliation from the United States. North Korea lacks the technical know-how to build an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, despite the hopes and lies from the National Missile Defense proponents in the USA.
And an invasion into South Korea wouldn't get too far:
If North Korea insanely attacked, the South Koreans would fight on mountainous and urban terrain which heavily favors defense, and complete air superiority would shoot up anything the North Koreans put on the road. Assuming the North Koreans could start up a thousand of their old tanks and armored vehicles, they cannot advance through the mountainous DMZ. The South Koreans have fortified, mined, and physically blocked all avenues through these mountains, and it would take North Korean infantry and engineers weeks to clear road paths while under fire.
The North Korean military could gain a few thousand meters with human wave assaults into minefields and concrete fortifications. However, these attacks would bog down from heavy casualties, and a lack of food and ammo resupply. Fighting would be bloody as thousands of South Korean and American troops and civilians suffer from North Korean artillery and commando attacks. Nevertheless, the North Korean army would be unable to breakthrough or move supplies forward. Even if North Korea magically broke through, all military analysts scoff at the idea that the North Koreans could bridge large rivers or move tons of supplies forward while under attack from American airpower.
So folks need to remember that this latest threat from North Korea is simply one in a long list of impotent threats by an impotent, dying old man.
For those that argue he's a crazy, dying old man I can only respond that even in a dictatorship, countries don't act suicidally at the onset of war. They only go into wars they think they can win. That's because even a dictator has to hang onto his power and behaving suicidally will end his power in a heartbeat. There'd be a coup.
