Now that the dust has settled somewhat on the Specter fade to blue, and as it appears, with Ridge out, that he won't face a challenge on the right, it's looking more and more like Joe Sestak is it. If anyone is going to take Specter down, it's Sestak.
It's worth noting, as various people are opining about Joe Sestak's chances of being a viable primary contender, that campaigns aren't held on paper. On paper, Joe Sestak is a longshot. But campaigns are held in offices, on phones, on doorsteps, at events.
In that vein, I wanted to share with you a story told last March by one of the posters at my blog, TheCrossedPond.com. Jack is a 24-year veteran of the United States Navy, recently retired. Apropos of nothing, he told a story last year about an admiral he served under called "Smokin' Joe". With his permission, I'd like to pass it along.
In the late 1990’s, I was in a squadron of destroyers and frigates lead by Commodore Smokin’ Joe.
Smokin Joe was a bit of an anomaly: unfailingly polite, relentlessly calm, unflappable. I can recall no instance in which he raised his voice or cursed any sailor. He was an intellectual, brilliant, highly educated, and in continual need of a haircut. He was possessed of a work ethic like I have never seen. He had the energy of three men, all of it directed exclusively into his job. And as a matter of deeply held faith, Smokin’ Joe believed that everyone else in his sphere of influence should as well. He worked constantly, and so did his staff. He had no known outside activities. Even while in port, a light week at the office included 80 hours with some of it on Sunday. Out of desperation, a group of junior officers seeking to distract him bought him a puppy. It ended up back at the pound within a week. When we heard he had married, we assumed it must have been an arranged marriage or perhaps a mail order; we could see no way in which he had time for courtship.
His direct staff, a dozen or so officers and chiefs, were continually at the edge of exhaustion. We lucky ones, merely stationed on one of his ships and thus protected by the sovereignty of our Captains and a couple of layers of command, both pitied and hated them. The Commodore’s remorseless pursuit of squadron perfection came at us via these staffers. Their interference with our daily routine was constant and aggressive. During the standard in port workday, we fielded a continual stream of queries, "requests" for information, direction on specific issues, interrogatives as to when they might expect the next update, and firm "recommendations" on appropriate courses for any and all planned activity. After standard working hours, this continued unabated into the night, forcing the 24-hour rotating duty section to respond as best they could or stiff-arm if possible. God, how we cursed them. The Commodore himself was so damn likeable; we directed much of our irritation towards his minions. They were not "The Staff," or "the DesRon" (Destroyer Squadron), they were "The Fucking Staff." And they were on the phone. Again. It became normal. And we were the best damn squadron in the Navy. We just didn’t realize it.
When he left, the officer wardrooms of four navy ships breathed a collective sigh of relief. Finally, we could operate like a normal squadron. We could run our ships and departments, rather than the Commodore trying to do it by proxy. We were happy as clams. At first.
It started with little things; queries to DesRon went unanswered. The Staff seemed unaware of significant events happening on our ships despite standard reporting. Long term multi-ship planning slacked off. And almost without even realizing it, certainly without recognizing the absurdity of it, we caught ourselves noting aloud that "This wouldn’t have happened under Smokin’ Joe." Against all odds, we missed our old staff. We missed their near infallibility, their supreme competence, their constant push for better and more...
I have told several colleagues, anyone who would listen in fact: Even knowing little about his policy positions, I can think of no man I have ever known more suited for Congress. He is brilliant, unflappable, and driven. Pennsylvania is lucky to have him, and not just because he sent Weldon packing. But I pity his staff. I suspect their turnover rate is quite high.
Of course, now that Sestak is in the news, Jack's had a chance to revisit that thought.
Senator Smokin' Joe Sestak
Can we agree on four possible outcomes to the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate race for the seat currently held by Arlen Specter (D-Nihilism):
- Specter retains the seat.
- Pat Toomey defeats him or another Democrat, having rallied the remnant of the conservative base and a significant portion of independents and moderates from both parties that are disillusioned by Specter’s obvious self-interested maneuvering.
- An alternative moderate Republican wins the seat, Tom Ridge having been the leading contender until recently. With Ridge self-eliminated, there does not appear to be anyone with sufficient name recognition to defeat Toomey, much less Specter.
- Sestak defeats Specter in an upset primary, and goes on to defeat Toomey or another Republican challenger. Though this scenario has some early hype, it is still considered a long shot by most observers.
But not me. I’m going on the record as predicting outcome 4.
Sestak is not to be underestimated. He is brilliant, driven, and possesses uncanny energy. You will not out hustle Joe Sestak. He will campaign relentlessly, 20 hours a day, multiple events per day, and he will appear fresh and intelligent at every stop. His staff will look like death warmed over, but he will be fine. This is who he is.
I’ll only add one thought:
Right now, Sestak is low on name ID. However, if he declares against Specter, the limelight will be there. Given Specter’s high profile defection, combined with the specter of Joe Lieberman, this would become, in my opinion, the marquee primary race of 2010. Sestak would begin with an advantage that longshot primary challengers to longtime incumbents almost never have...media oxygen, and plenty of it. He could write his own ticket as far as coverage and profile is concerned. That goes a long way to erasing his early polling deficit at the very least along the lines of name ID.
So what plays? If you’re running an already high-profile race against a recent convert to the party and the party establishment are wishy-washily against you but you have a fair bit of grassroots support and the wind at your back, what’s the difference between closing the gap and closing it enough to win?
Well, hustle.
If I were Arlen Specter, I'd be scared shitless to have a shark like Sestak circling the waters.
Cross-posted, sort of, at Donklephant