Make no mistake about it: It is going to be tough to beat Bob McDonnell in Virginia. He's well-practiced at pretending to be far more moderate than he is, and there's a more than 30 year history of the party that wins the White House losing the Virginia governorship.
But, that said, here's some good news:
Rasmussen. 6/10. Likely voters. MoE 4.5%. (April numbers)
Creigh Deeds (D) 47% (30)
Bob McDonnell (R) 41% (45)
Deeds also has a slight lead on favorables:
Deeds 59/27
McDonnell 52/28
No doubt Deeds' much-publicized come-from-behind win is giving him a bounce here, and in fact, in April he was polling the worst of the three Democrats in a head to head against McDonnell. Both his election numbers and his solid favorables also suggest that the dramatic gains he made in the final week of the primary are holding.
At the moment, Deeds has 89% of Democratic support locked up to McDonnell's 78% of Republican support. That gives McDonnell room to grow among Republicans, while Deeds has a strong base among Democrats from which to expand his support among unaffiliated voters (where McDonnell has a 7 point lead).
In other words, it's a damn tight race and likely to stay that way -- but Democrats have cause for optimism.