Where are the Carriers? is a page at Globalsecurity.org that I check every so often, usually when there are one or more major crises emerging on the world stage. I do this because I think the deployment of four billion-dollar superweapons platforms is a big tell on what the United States government feels are its immediate and near-term national security priorities.
So this morning I spent some time perusing the Navy news links and seeing in detail where the carriers are, and are headed, and what threats might be occupying the attention of our leaders.
Perhaps the happening in Iran catch their eye?
As it turns out, one - count it - one carrier is in the Indian ocean, and it is busy operating in support of the war effort in Afghanistan and, maybe (but don't tell anybody) helping Pakistan deal with the Taliban and related insurgencies.
So what's up?
What's up? You ask. The big attention is elsewhere. Four carriers are either in or planning to be in the western Pacific. That means North Korea and persons contemplating taking advantage of any mischief that arises there.
What has my attention, however, is that five carriers are either in port undergoing repairs in Virginia or on short jaunts in the Atlantic getting certified and ready for deployment. Three won't be there for long. But for a short while, we have five carriers in Newport News and Norfolk. That's half the active carrier fleet. And you can bet if a blogger is noticing it based on public website information, that other people are noticing too.
Here's the list
Eisenhower - Arabian Sea, supporting of Operation Enduring Freedom (Afghanistan/Pakistan)
Washington - Western Pacific, onset of regular summer deployment (North Korea)
Reagan - Western Pacific as of last week for training and combat readiness (North Korea)
Stennis - Gulf of Alaska, commencing combat exercises (North Korea)
Nimitz - in eastern Pacific (off coast of California), preparing for scheduled deployment to western Pacific (North Korea)
Lincoln - at Bremerton dry dock, planned incremental availability in 2009
Vinson - Newport News, final stages of overhaul (close to ready to deploy)
Truman - in Atlantic, final readiness certification (based out of Virginia)
HW Bush - in western Atlantic Ocean (stationed out of Norfolk), flight deck certifications
Enterprise - at Newport News, drydock, restricted availability
Roosevelt - Newport News, starting overhaul
Notes
- There's only one carrier anywhere near Iran, and it's busy with Afghanistan
- There are two carriers within strike distance of North Korea
- Another is scheduled to be there soon
- Another is near Alaska and if you glance at a globe it's not as far a hop to North Korea as you might think
- Conceivably the Lincoln could be rushed into action in the Pacific but that would only happen if there were serious setbacks (use your imagination)
- It is mathematially possible that at some point this summer there will be five carriers in port, in Newport News and Norfolk, all at the same time.
Now tell me - what do you think the security and foreign policy priorities of the United States government is at this point in time?
Parting Thoughts
The message here is that North Korea has everyone's attention. The events in Iran are not just a non-concern; they are an unwelcome distraction that is being played down for good reason.
- We don't want to get involved in Iran.
- We have no constructive angle even if we did.
- North Korea is a clear menace that is not about to just go away.
- There's never been this clear (ok, less vague) assent from China and Russia to deal assertively with North Korea.
- We are sending in four carrier task forces to interdict movement of contraband in and out of the DPRK on this premise.
- If things get hot, that plus a pretty significant air wing in South Korea means the equivalent of five carrier groups, not even counting what the South Koreans and Japanese can bring to bear in their own defense.
- If carrier strength is any indicator - in a matter of months three additional carriers will be available for service
- That means for the first time in quite some time, the United States will have the carriers sufficient to fight "two and a half" full scale wars at once.
- But for now.. I hope someone is keeping an eye on those carriers in Virginia. Because having them all in one place seems to be rather reckless to me. A bit too close to a Pearl Harbor visual for my comfort.
Of course, there are those who disagree...
Virginia leaders say it makes no strategic sense to have a second carrier base on the East Coast. They also say the plan is fiscal folly to upgrade Mayport — which they say could run $1 billion — when the Navy has other unmet needs.
Florida leaders strongly insist that dispersing the fleet is a good idea, making carriers less vulnerable to a terrorist attack or major hurricane. And they question whether Virginia simply wants to hoard carriers because the ships provide so much economic muscle to Hampton Roads.
So North Korea is one impending full-scale war... and budget bickering in Congress is the other. We'll use the "half-war" capacity to watch over the rest of the planet. :)