I've watched with great interest as the Internet, and especially social networking sites like Twitter, have taken center-stage in the current conflict in Iran. The central role of these sites has inspired some to call this a "Twitter Revolution." And apparently the U.S. Department of State agrees, reportedly asking Twitter to delay its scheduled maintenance to avoid disrupting a vital line of communication for opposition protesters in Iran.
But if these developments are so obvious to us, surely they have not escaped the notice of totalitarian regimes throughout the world. What, then, are the implications for the future of internet communications in places like China and even Russia?
Control of information has always been essential to the maintenance of tyranny. Propaganda was at the center of Hitler's regime. Control of the media has been the hallmark of communist states like the USSR and the People's Republic of China. Even in the US a complicit media has been essential to the erosion of freedom and the uncontrolled expansion of executive power.
Regimes are well aware of this, and already recognize the threat of the Internet. The PRC has long maintained a vast network of Internet censors and police. Google.cn has famously agreed to censor search results to comply with local laws. And most recently Chinese citizens found themselves unable to access many websites and social networking services such as Twitter on the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square protests.
For such regimes, recent developments in Iran must be seen as the realization of their worst fears about these new technologies. What remains unknown is how they will react. Will China further tighten its Internet censorship? Will totalitarian regimes elsewhere block access to Twitter and other social networking sites? Will the Putin-Medvedev regime in Russia take a closer look at such websites?
In short, will the success of the Iranian people's struggle for freedom mean greater oppression for others? I don't know, but I fear it.
ETA: CNN has a story on the high-tech game of cat an mouse in Iran, in which they conclude that (so far) the government crackdown is succeeding.