Much has been written about the ongoing events in Iran both here at Daily Kos and around the blogosphere. While the end result in very much in question given the recent "doubling down" by Supreme Leader Khamanei in his Friday prayer speech it is perhaps apropos to take a step back and learn some lessons from this recent uprising.
If you believe that a more democratic Middle East bodes well for the US and for humanity in general, I hope that you will make the jump below the fold and see how the Iranian experience can lead to broader, fundamental changes in the region.
What started with an election for Iranian President amongst four pre-screened, government approved candidates can now turn into a much more fundamental change in the Middle East if the 4 primary lessons learned from Iran are more fundammentally applied to other countries in the region.
While it was not necessarily the intent of the protesters to bring down the regime as embodied by Khamanei there are reasons to be optimistic that this may be the case. If it does happen it will be because 1) there was a "spark"- a precipitating event 2) there was wide use of "new" media 3) after initial fits of rage, there was a conscious decision to pursue non-violent means and 4) there was a protective "bubble" created around the protesters.
The precipitating event in this case was the widespread disbelief and anger amongst Mousavi's supporters regarding the announced "results" of this election. This was the necessary first step to rally and unite millions of Iranians. In order for change to come to the rest of the Middle East a precipitating event (be it rigged elections, jailing of dissidents, violence against opposition groups, etc) that galvanizes supporters must occur.
However, the precipitating event is not sufficient in and of itself since, in a state run media environment, the state will, for obvious reasons, frequently not report the event or, alternatively, spin the reporting of the event to something other than what it was. That is where wide spread use of "new" media is necessary to sustain, inform and direct the galvanized populace.
It is not necessary to re-hash how Twitter, Facebook, cellphones with cameras, etc. have empowered and emboldened the protesters by spreading news and information in real time. However, it is important to note that Iran is the country with the third most bloggers in the world and so Iran was an ideal place for this technological revolution to occur due to their young, tech savvy population. It is equally important to note that the Middle East as a whole, while perhaps not up to Iran's technological level, has an extremely young overall population that tends to understand technology far better than the "old guard".
The third key component of this successful movement is the embrace of non-violent tactics. While frequently noted as the missing key to significant progress in the Middle East, the development of a movement that has been quoting Gandhi and MLK Jr.; that employs, after initial outbursts of rage fuelled vandalism, the tactics and techniques of these practioners of non-violent disobedience, is crucial to defeating a repressive, armed state. The obviousness that an unarmed (or even a lightly armed) movement can, by force, topple a well-armed and ruthless regime has always been an unrealistic expectation. The only sane path is non-violence.
Unfortunately, throughout history despotic regimes are usually unafraid to exercise the full fury of their military, para-military and police forces to violently squash uprisings. This has been made all the more easy in an environment where the state controls the media and dictates what will be shown on TV and what will be written in print media. In the modern media age, even despots are loathe to publicize the images that show their willingness to crush, trample, and otherwise kill the people opposed to them and so, whether it is China in 1989 or Iran in 2003, the brutality imposed on their own citizenry is done under cover of a media blackout. Today's environment is different though.
The "new" media mentioned as reason number two that the recent Iranian movement is, so far, successful, has also created a protective bubble that prevents the regime from doing it's dirty business beyond prying eyes. While disjointed, confusing and often without context, the images, texts, and tweets coming from Iran are a jumbled mash that still manages to convey the essential truth of a non-violent people seeking a peaceful addressing of their legitimate grievances. If the bloody crackdown forecasted for this weekend is to occur it will be beemed to our computers and TVs via the new media. There will be no going back should the regime display, in broad daylight, the wanton cruelty it was so careful to hide in the past.
Admittedly, there is still much to learn from what is happening in Iran and what, if any, broader implications this has for the rest of the Middle East remains to be seen. However, the fact that a clear blue print for challenging existing non-democratic regimes is developing in front of our eyes is very promising development.
While all eyes should be glued to what the end result will be in Iran, we should also be keeping an eye on Egypt. The lessons learned from the events in Iran by both the citizens of Egypt and by the Mubarak government are likely to come in to play before other Middle Eastern countries. I encourage more in depth reporting of the reactions of various Middle East countries to the ongoing
The blueprint is being developed. A spark or precipitating event, created and sustained by "new" media, could potentially lead to dramatic, sudden regime changing movements if the populace chooses non-violent tactics and protects themselves with a protective bubble created by the "new" media.