Much of the coverage of the Iran coup and the resulting demonstrations and clashes has centered on the violence and the people's rage. But there is another element which has not been covered much here or in the press. And that is the issue of succession.
Khamenei has lung cancer and is not expected to live much longer. In fact, in 2006 he was not expected to live more than a year. Whenever his demise comes he apparently wants his son to succeed him, setting up what, for all appearances, will be a dynasty. Even before the current election woes, Rafsanjani has been against Khamenei's son as successor, for obvious and ambitious reasons. This struggle has been going on behind the scenes for some time. CBS reported the terminal diagnosis and power struggle in February 2006 here.
One of the questions that has continuously been asked is why would Iran and the Supreme leader go to the trouble and danger of fixing an election when the policy differences between the candidates is not great and the power of the presidency is so limited? In fact, one could argue that that's why the original ayatollah made the presidency an elective post. The supreme leader picks the candidates so who cares who wins?
Under normal circumstances that would be true. The president is more of a figurehead. But, when Khamenei dies and the power vacuum comes, there will be two main candidates for new supreme leader, Khamenei's son and Rafsanjani. It is not unreasonable to believe that the president will exert significant power. With Ahmadinejad in power Khamenei may feel his son will have an even chance. With Mousavi ... not so much.
This would also explain the ham handed vote rigging, the overkill with the 62%, and the ridiculous explanation today that 3 million fraudulent votes is nothing in an election won by 11 million votes.
If this is the real reason behind what seems to be an irrational power play by the Supreme Leader, he is in essence tossing his country under the bus for the sake of his family and a dynasty. Pretty sick.
This may also be why the split in the guardian council and the council of experts is so obvious. If Khamenie is going to be dead soon, the council members may not be afraid of him... or his son.