If I was pressed to guess who will be the GOP's nominee for the 2010 Governor's race in Minnesota, I would say "Norm Coleman!". Partly this is a function of the fact that the race looks to be wide open, so if Coleman runs I think he immediately becomes the prohibitive favorite. Is he likely to run? I think so. He is soon to officially lose his Senate seat. And Coleman is a career politician, if he can possibly manage it. What options, other than Governor, does he really for major office?
If he wants a rematch with Al Franken, he'll have to wait for five years. And Senate re-matches are generally only successful by a previous challenger who fell short; someone slowly building momentum towards knocking off the incumbent. Such would not be the case in this instance. On the other hand, such a race would likely occur during the mid-terms of a twice-elected President, elections which are particularly lucrative to the other party. Still, it is five years away. Of course, there will be another Senate seat up for election in three years, but Senator Amy Klobuchar remains popular and taking her on doesn't seem like a path back to elective office.
There's the House, I suppose, but it's hard to find a House seat in Minnesota in which Coleman might be competitive. The districts are either very liberal and held by Democratic incumbents, already occupied by Republicans, or outstate districts held by blue-collar Democrats where Coleman would be an odd fit, to say the least. And anyway, Senate-to-House would be an odd step down for a politician, though it has been attempted as recently as 2006 in Minnesota, when Rod Grams (who was a U.S. Senator from 1995 to 2001, not to mention a member of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1993 to 1995) was the Republican nominee against incumbent DFLer Jim Oberstar in MN-8).
As for federal appointments, it looks to be some time before a Republican will be sitting in the White House again, able to name a certain former Senator to the cabinet, as an ambassador, or to one of the other assorted positions available in the federal government.
That leaves the Governorship, a position that simply makes sense as a goal for Norm Coleman.
Here's why.
First of all, the election is less than 17 months away. Second, the sitting GOP Governor, Tim Pawlenty, has recently announced that he will not be seeking a third term.
With the Minnesota Supreme Court soon to reject the Coleman campaign's appeal, Norm Coleman can then announce his acceptance of the ruling. He can put the best possible spin on it, announcing that he disagrees with the ruling but accepts it. He can then simply go away for several months and operate behind the scenes. By disappearing from the public until early 2010, he can put as much distance between himself and the increasingly-unpopular election dispute. And given his near-universal name-recognition in Minnesota, Norm Coleman doesn't need to be fighting for media attention this year. His opponents for the GOP nomination won't have such a luxury.
Third, the large GOP field should play well for Norm Coleman. He brings from his term as a Senator, his two terms as mayor of St. Paul, and his 1998 bid for Governor a decent-sized base. In a race of numerous participants, even a solid minority of the GOP base easily offers a dominant starting position to Coleman, because none of his potential opponents thus far look particularly formidable. Bill Haas? Jim Ramstad? Steve Sviggum? Marty Seifert? Really, only Brian Sullivan - who lost a hard-fought campaign against Pawlenty for the GOP nomination in 2002 - looks to be a reasonably able threat to a potential Coleman bid. But will Sullivan run? Yes, I'm guessing, though I still like Coleman's chances. He has the "I was robbed by that rude comedian!" rally cry to use, and I think it would be very useful against the turgid technocracy of Sullivan.
Fourth, he's run this race before. Yes, he lost to the rassler, but it should be noted that Ventura caught lightning in a jar that race, peaked at just the right time, and pulled off an unbelievable upset. Coleman knows how to win the nomination and he knows how to run the general election. He can rightly claim that he's run for Governor before and gotten more votes than the DFL nominee (Skip Humphrey, who Coleman bested by 6% in 1998).
Fifth, the DFL. Yes, the DFL will select someone to oppose the GOP nominee, and that will always give the Republicans hope. And since the DFL field is as vast as the GOP field, Coleman can reasonably hope that the DFL will serve up someone as devoid of charisma as Roger Moe or someone with as unpleasant a temperment as Mike Hatch. Make no mistake about it, the DFL has some very good candidates. The problem is, they may well choose to select a not-very-good candidate who could easily lose to the GOP nominee. This should make the race lucrative to Coleman.
Does this mean Coleman will run? No. Does it mean he will win it? No. But I think the odds of him running are decent, I think if he runs, he is very likely the nominee, and I think if he is the nominee he will have a very real potential to win, depending on who the DFL nominates.
Norm Coleman's career is an interesting one. In three elections for major office, he has lost to a pair of entertainers who had never before sought public office, while he has beaten a former Vice President, United States Senator and Ambassador to Japan (albeit in a highly unusual race in which he likely would have lost to his original opponent had that opponent, Paul Wellstone, not died in a plane crash). And I regret to say that I do not think Minnesota has seen the last of Norm Coleman on a ballot.
Finally, a couple of comments about potential DFL nominees. First, St. Paul mayor Chris Coleman. That could give us a Coleman v. Coleman battle of St. Paul mayors. Second, Speaker of the Minnesota House Margaret Anderson Kelliher - she hasn't announced yet, but I think she will and she's my favorite at this point.