Yes, I am optimistic about our future. On the down side, global climate change has not been fully accepted or dealt with and research indicates that hundreds or thousands of species will become extinct, sea level will rise and our forecasts may be underpredicting the future warming trends. Click on my user name to see a particular example known as the water dimer effect. I am optimistic, though, because we have begun to change course and there are several positive signs already that we can make a difference that will be monumental.
A large part of our problem is from electricity use. We have already begun replacing incandescent bulbs with compact fluorescents that have 1/3 the energy use. With the soon advent of affordable LED lights that have 1/10 the power consumption of incandescents, there will be a real dent in our energy consumption.
Air conditioning and refrigeration are additional significant sources of energy consumption. The trend towards replacing refrigerators and air conditioners with more efficient models will also have a beneficial result.
Coal is still used to a great extent but we are beginning to see that this is not the way to go. Several new wind and solar projects are under way and more are on the horizon. These will help and the benefit will be tremendous. The stimulus funds that go toward better energy usage and production will have a beneficial result.
Gasoline and other carbon-based fuels are likely to become more expensive again. With increasing prices for fuel we naturally use less and look for savings. Additionally, with less traffic on the roads our transportation becomes more efficient and there is less idling time in bumper-to-bumper traffic.
In California it looks like over the past few months that enforcement of the speed limit has really stepped up. Where I used to see one highway patrol officer per long trip I now see three or four, and they are pulling over people going as little as 5 miles per hour over the speed limit. Traffic seems to have adapted and people are not always driving as fast. The goal may have been partly to increase revenue for the highway patrol, but a byproduct is that people are using less fuel and also driving more safely. This is also a trend that is likely to continue. Smaller cars and higher fuel efficiency standards are on the way and they will help too.
Air traffic is a considerable use of fuel and source of carbon emissions. High-speed rail projects will have a positive effect on emissions in this area as well. Airlines are also looking for ways to save on fuel and will do more so as fuel becomes more expensive. The resulting high prices and our tightening of our belts for bad financial time means less air traffic and less emissions.
Our financial crisis itself has a side benefit of less carbon emissions. Less industry generally translates to less consumption. It is terrible to see the consequences of people losing their jobs but as the economy picks up it will be leaner and cleaner, and the down time correlates to less emissions.
It is even possible we will have another mount Pinatubo eruption or worse. When this volcanic eruption occurred the effects of global climate change were delayed by as much as ten years. We can’t count on something like this happening but it is possible. Good thing we are monitoring those volcanoes, isn’t it?
There is also evidence that methane emissions from Europe and Asia are leveling off and possibly declining. Efforts have been made to reduce methane emissions and they are starting to be seen in the data. Methane is stronger as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide despite its lower concentration and overall effect. It also has an atmospheric lifetime of 5 to 10 years instead of 50 to 100 years for carbon dioxide so it is a source of great potential cooling.
As the climate does become warmer in the near future there are things we can do to minimize the effect. Making roads, parking lots and roofs lighter colors will cause a few degrees less of heating in warm areas and has not yet been fully pursued. Fortunately the federal government has seen the potential and is already proposing changes.
It is not time for us to become lax about cleaning up our act. There is no need to become despondent though. Change is happening and we are part of the change. Where carbon emissions level off and finally decline depends on us and what we do with what life sends our way. Climate forcasts are extrapolations and subject to potentially wild errors no matter how good the computers are that do the forecasting. The mechanism of global warming is well established though and we need to keep up the work to effectively save the world.