I wouldn't consider myself a Blue Dog, but I am in favor of fiscal discipline. I think the $11.6 trillion debt is a problem. We need to be careful. But as President Obama said last night, if we save $2.2 trillion by spending a little more now, that's a good fiscal decision in 2009 (especially since we're in a global recession).
In this diary, I'm going to describe what may be a "typical" Blue Dog district by looking in depth at the demographics and politics of Tennessee's 6th District, where Rep. Bart Gordon is the Congressman. Gordon is especially important because he serves on the Energy/Commerce committee that's currently the bottleneck/block to the House bill HR 3200.
Late Update: As if on cue, a group of Tea Party organizers and other anti-government activists are meeting at Bart Gordon's Murfreesboro office tomorrow to protest healthcare reform. I'm sure they'll make a lot of noise, but won't change too many minds.
Census Data
What first jumped out at me was education level. 58% of District 6 residents over the age of 25 have never attended college. 20% dropped out of high school.
The Educational Attainment of People in Congressional District 6 (110th Congress), Tennessee in 2005-2007
Graduate or professional degree 5%
Bachelor's degree 14%
Associate's degree 5%
Some college, no degree 18%
High school diploma or equivalency 38%
Less than high school diploma 20%
Source: American Community Survey, 2005-2007
So, we're not dealing with a district that is super well-educated. In many cases, this is due to the fact that families can't afford college. In other cases, there is an anti-intellectual bent. But there are two major universities in the district and a relatively strong and active student population.
But here's a key datapoint:
TRAVEL TO WORK: Eighty-four percent of Congressional District 6 (110th Congress) workers drove to work alone from 2005-2007, 11 percent carpooled, less than 0.5 percent took public transportation, and 2 percent used other means. The remaining 4 percent worked at home. Among those who commuted to work, it took them on average 26.1 minutes to get to work.
84% drive to work alone, taking an average of 26 minutes to get to work.
And what do they do on their way to work?
Many listen to the radio. Stations like WWTN, WLAC, and others are typical fare, as right-wing talking heads spout attacks on Al Gore, criticize wasteful government spending, and demonize politicians like Nancy Pelosi as out-of-touch radical liberals.
Geography
Gordon's district is drawn in a way that would typically favor Republicans. It includes suburban and exurban areas around the east side of Nashville, including Robertson, Sumner, Trousdale, Wilson, and Rutherford Counties. Rutherford County, home to Middle Tennessee State University, is one of the fastest-growing counties in the nation, thanks to cheap property values, low taxes, and a strategic location on Interstate 24 that makes both Nashville and Chattanooga accessible. It's just 3 hours to the Atlanta metro area from Murfreesboro. While jobs are plentiful in the district, many commute into Nashville for better pay and live in the suburbs.
In Cookeville, the county seat of Putnam County, you have Tennessee Tech University. Its location just off Interstate 40 is on one of the major cross-country trucking routes in the nation.
So, while Gordon is the chair of the Science and Technology committee, he's also on the Energy and Commerce committee in no small part due to the interests that the district has in favor of new investments in science, improvements in highways, etc. Gordon could pretty easily get away with supporting the stimulus package because of the focus on green tech, education, and transportation investments.
Political History
The seat in District 6, now held by Bart Gordon, was previously held by Al Gore. Gordon has been in the seat since 1985, making him the "elder statesman" of the Democratic delegation in Tennessee. The district was re-drawn in 2000, taking away Williamson County (a rural/suburban district south of Nashville and a GOP stronghold) and putting that booming area in District 7.
Gordon won re-election in 2008, but Obama lost badly in the district, 62-39%.
It's worth noting that the modern Democratic Party was "founded" by Andrew Jackson in Murfreesboro, TN (Rutherford County) after a strained 1824 election where the Democratic-Republican Party was brought into disarray over arguments between what might be called "Washington insiders" and the populists in rural areas. Jackson won the popular and electoral vote, but the House of Representatives selected John Quincy Adams over Jackson.
So, frustration with government in the Beltway, suspicion of special interests, and populism are written into the history of the 6th District in a unique way. Political talk often focuses around reducing federal government influence and control, though residents seem to enjoy the benefits quite a bit (education funding, good roads, etc.). Tea Parties in Murfreesboro did fairly well, and Gordon continues to be pressed and threatened by tax-averse residents.
Healthcare Reform
Gordon has taken over a million dollars from the healthcare industry. While he remains committed to healthcare reform in principle, he's interested in keeping taxes low, reducing costs, and helping small businesses. Gordon's interest in healthcare tech would make him amenable, I believe, to programs that provide improved healthcare IT including programs like telemedicine which would allow for rural providers to consult long-distance with specialists in some of the research hospitals.
Gordon's not opposed to spending money as long as he can point to a tangible return on investment. He supports PAYGO rules and doesn't want to raise taxes, so that makes for a narrow needle to thread on the fiscal side of things.
Gordon's district needs to confront the bipolar "have your cake and eat it too" mentality that's common in sprawling suburban communities. Because of the large number of small and family-owned businesses, voters ought to respond favorably to a bill that reduces the burden of healthcare on small businesses and working-class families. However, a prejudice against federal government intervention, combined with an antipathy for federal income taxes and anger about budget deficits make it very difficult to push the message through the noise of the Republicans and the enemies of health reform.
Gordon's voters need to see tangible data that shows how health costs have increased, and how we will "bend the curve" with reform. Gordon's main focus now in the Energy and Commerce Committee is addressing Rep. Waxman's political style, which can easily be interpreted as "radical California liberalism" by voters in Tennessee. There needs to be some kind of outcome that will show that Gordon's voice is being heard, and that cost savings will come out of the bill.
Appeals to compassion, empathy, and social connectedness (we're all in this together!) aren't likely to work in the 6th district, not because voters aren't compassionate but because they believe that acts of kindness are best expressed through the local church or through private donations.