I have always believed Obama to be more Machiavellian than most people and I am starting to wonder about his political calculation.
In wanting to push health care reform within his first 7 months Obama is certainly taking a risk. Pundits seem to think that Obama's first year major item agenda has to do with a naturally high popularity partly a result of the honeymoon resulting from a recent electoral landslide. Idealists believe that "we can't wait any longer".
It has always seemed to me that Obama is far more calculating than he appears. His needling of HRC campaign accusations of "kindergarten ambitions" and his derision of "governance by polls" while he had 3 pollsters regularly sampling the field in the primaries are giveaways of something we should all want in the most liberal president since Carter: calculation not naivete.
With this suspicion and a similar rationale, I am thinking that Obama and Pelosi will force a vote on a healthcare bill in the house before the August recess even if it means that they will LOSE by 2-3 votes. Losing by a handful of votes - and given the support of some liberal house republicans, there will be about 45-50 representatives who will return to their districts to own that NAY this August. Can you imagine Obama showing up for a town hall meeting in their districts while they are vacationing with a NAY on their back?
Pelosi will get this through even if Obama - or myself - don't like the idea of taxing health benefits for it. There are not enough blue dogs with the guts to derail Obama on the health care bill democrats have been promising for 50 years.