The way I see it, Sen. Baucus is now serving his last term in office. If he sabotages Obama's health care initiative and stymies this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to finally make it happen, the hounds of liberal hell will be on his trail. (The election was less than a year ago; the troops have not yet disbanded.) I personally will do whatever it takes in terms of money and campaigning to see him defeated in 2014---assuming he doesn't just retire---and make life miserable in the meantime. And I am certainly not alone in feeling this commitment.
On the other hand, if he does the right thing, following what I can only trust is his true conscience, and moves to help pass a good Health Care bill into law---well, he will probably lose anyway, because Montana is chock-full of easily led conservatives and irrational wing-nuts who will nail him for giving them what they so desparately need. Baucus is caught between a rock and a hard place, for sure. (It's not easy being and staying a Democrat in Montana.) Add to this how much gumption it would take to bite the hand that has been feeding him all these years...
If it's any consolation to him, if he does do the right thing, he will have a huge amount of support from the same people who will take his political hide if he doesn't. He will lose all those juicy insurance-industry campaign contributions (hell hath no fury like an industry scorned), but I think grass-roots support groups like MoveOn and others would be there for him to help make up the difference. I just don't think there are enough of us who can actually cast votes in Montana to make a difference.
So, what it comes down to for Baucus is this: Given the writing on the wall, how is he going to go out? By stepping up, or by betraying us all? It's his moment to choose what it says on his political tombstone. I just wish I had a better feeling about how it's all going to end.