Politico has a piece today that makes me wonder if we could be on the verge of an unprecedented third Dem wave year. The NRCC has a very shocking addition to its "Patriot list" of vulnerable House Repub incumbents--Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming.
As most of us recall, Lummis got bloodied up pretty good by Gary Trauner in 2008--far more than her 10-point margin would normally indicate. She's trying to retire $215,000 in debt after we dropped $830,000 in ads on the state to help Trauner. It's also put Lummis on notice--get things in order, and fast. And this when the Dems haven't settled on a candidate yet--Trauner's all but ruled out a third heave.
Consider these points--60 percent of registered voters are Repub, and we haven't even come close to electing anyone there at the federal level in 30 years. The mere fact we're even talking about going after Lummis proves that it's still a very toxic environment for Repubs.
About the only thing that may be going for Lummis at this point, besides the fact we haven't settled on a candidate, is that Wyoming is a nightmare to advertise in. Something like three-fourths of the state gets its TV from outside the state--Denver, Salt Lake City, Rapid City, Billings, Idaho Falls. That means in order to really make a serious bid at the state, you have to air ads in areas where most of the people can't vote for you. It's a big reason candidates tenure themselves in so quickly.
Still, the Repubs seem to think that this could be a booby trap for us.
"I think Democrats and the DCCC think it’s a seat they can win, and we’re just going to make sure they waste every penny they spend there," Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), who heads the Patriot program for the NRCC, told POLITICO.
Apparently Rogers doesn't realize the significance of having to mount anything of a defense in a nasty-red state.