Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 7/27-30/2009. All adults. MoE 2% (7/20-23/2009 results):
| FAVORABLE | UNFAVORABLE | NET CHANGE |
|---|
| PRESIDENT OBAMA | 62 (61) | 36 (36) | +1 |
| | | |
| PELOSI: | 34 (33) | 56 (57) | +2 |
| REID: | 32 (31) | 57 (57) | +1 |
| McCONNELL: | 18 (19) | 65 (64) | -2 |
| BOEHNER: | 13 (14) | 64 (64) | -1 |
| | | |
| CONGRESSIONAL DEMS: | 41 (40) | 51 (52) | +2 |
| CONGRESSIONAL GOPS: | 10 (11) | 74 (73) | -2 |
| | | | |
| DEMOCRATIC PARTY: | 45 (46) | 48 (47) | -2 |
| REPUBLICAN PARTY: | 19 (20) | 72 (71) | -2 |
Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.
Obama's favorability continues to be both regional and party dependent. Republicans do not like this guy, but D and I favorability (these charts are net, i.e., positive minus negative) is preserved:
The favorability of the two Congressional parties remains skewed,
which is an important factor in figuring where health care stands with the public. The President has a strong hand against the opposition.
When asked
Would you like to see more Democrats or Republicans elected to Congress in 2010?
DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS NOT SURE (last week)
All 39% (40), 29% (29%),32% (31)
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We asked two extra questions this week (the correct answer to both is YES):
QUESTION: Do you believe that America and Africa were once part of the same continent?
QUESTION: Do you believe that Barack Obama was born in the United States of America or not?
We will deal with the second question separately (how extensively do you think birthers have infiltrated the Republican party?), but as for the science question (detailed answers after the fold):
YES NO NOT SURE
ALL 42% 26% 32%
DEM 51% 16% 33%
REP 24% 47% 29%
IND 44% 23% 33%
OTH/REF 42% 25% 33%
NON VOTERS 46% 22% 32%
Republicans flunked the science question, whereas everyone else passes. Regionally, the South didn't do that well either.
NORTHEAST 50% 18% 32%
SOUTH 32% 37% 31%
MIDWEST 46% 22% 32%
WEST 43% 24% 33%
What are they teaching in science class these days? And isn't it amazing that regions and parties have their own facts? Perhaps we should ask how old the earth is, or whether the real life Fred Flintstone had a dinosaur as a pet.
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We made mention of the detailed Pew poll already:
This is of special interest, and I mentioned this morning that Obama's numbers mirror his vote total on the 2008 election (which was 53 to McCain's 46):
Obama’s job rating among independents and Republicans is now significantly lower than at any other point in his presidency. While Democrats are less supportive of Obama on a number of specific issues, overall job approval among Democrats is little changed from earlier in the year.
Republican assessments of Obama’s job performance – already negative since February – have taken a sharp turn for the worse over the past month. Just 19% of Republicans say they approve of his overall job performance, a 12-point drop since June.
At the same time, independent opinion also has become less positive. While a plurality of independents approves of the job Obama is doing (48% approve, 37% disapprove), this is an eight-point decline in approval since June. By contrast, Democrats continue to approve of Obama’s job performance at levels similar to those seen over the course of the last six months.
Some of the R-leaning indies are disenchanted, and everyone wants better economic numbers, but as the Daily Kos R2K poll continues to show, Republicans are not beloved, and Obama continues to be the main game in town. Compared to himself, he's slipped. Compared to Republicans, he's still strong.
People still continue to like the President. We measure favorability, not job approval. In addition to job approval, Pew also measures like/don't like:
Although Barack Obama’s job approval ratings have declined over the past month, most Americans say they like “the kind of person he is and the way he leads his life.” Nearly three-quarters (74%) personally like Obama, while just 12% say they dislike him.
Obama's got work to do, and there's no question that taken as a whole, the polls show declining numbers. But it would be premature to assume that further decline is inevitable, just as it is premature to assume the health care battle is over. Obama has reserves to tap:
The poll also finds that while the public is expressing broader disapproval of how Obama is dealing with the budget deficit, majorities continue to give a higher priority to spending more to make health care accessible and affordable, to help the economy recover and to improve education, rather than to reducing the budget deficit. Partisan divisions on these issues remain strong – with most Republicans putting deficit reduction first and most Democrats giving priority to additional spending. Most independents continue to see spending on health care and on education as higher priorities than deficit reduction. They are split as to whether economic stimulus spending or deficit reduction is more important right now.
Stay tuned for how this all plays out, and come back later when Kos talks about where Obama was born.
QUESTION: Do you believe that America and Africa were once part of the same continent?
YES NO NOT SURE
ALL 42% 26% 32%
MEN 41% 29% 30%
WOMEN 43% 23% 34%
DEM 51% 16% 33%
REP 24% 47% 29%
IND 44% 23% 33%
OTH/REF 42% 25% 33%
NON VOTERS 46% 22% 32%
WHITE 35% 30% 35%
BLACK 63% 13% 24%
LATINO 55% 19% 26%
OTHER/REF 56% 19% 25%
18-29 48% 20% 32%
30-44 40% 28% 32%
45-59 43% 24% 33%
60+ 39% 30% 31%
NORTHEAST 50% 18% 32%
SOUTH 32% 37% 31%
MIDWEST 46% 22% 32%
WEST 43% 24% 33%
DKOS WEEKLY NATIONAL POLL 2009
The Daily Kos weekly National Poll was conducted by Research 2000 July 27 through July 30, 2009. A total of 2400 adults nationally were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of calls was made into each state in the country in order to reflect the adult population nationally.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 2% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire adult population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, race, or region.
