A fairly quick hit for a Tuesday evening, as I have been on the road most of the day...
VA-Gov: New Poll Gives McDonnell Slight Lead Over Deeds
The Democratic primary bounce for nominee Creigh Deeds appears to have abated. PPP goes into the field in the Commonwealth, and they find that Republican nominee Bob McDonnell has a six point edge over Deeds (49-43). Some of the sampling info might give pause, but it is hard to diagnose the issue here. To be sure, there are fewer blacks and FAR fewer young voters in the PPP sample than there were in the 2008 electorate. Some Dems might cry "biased sample" here. And they may well be right. But it might ALSO be correct that those folks turned out in 2008 because of the unique dynamics of the presidential election, and they may not return for a 2009 gubernatorial battle. Deeds is going to have to get those two voting groups to the polls if he wants to hold this governorship for the Democrats.
OH-Sen: Democrats Have A Narrow Edge in Open Senate Race
Despite flagging numbers for President Obama in the Buckeye State (down to 49% approval), a new poll from Quinnipiac has the Democrats in a slightly enviable position in the Senate race to replace retiring Republican George Voinovich. Democratic Lt. Governor Lee Fisher leads both potential GOP candidates, with a four point lead (37-33) over former Congressman and Bush appointee Rob Portman and a larger six point edge (36-30) over wealthy businessman Tom Ganley. Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner had slightly smaller advantages over Portman (35-34) and Ganley (35-31). In the respective primaries, "undecided" is a runaway winner, as less than half of the electorate has a favorite in either primary. At present, Fisher has a statistically insignificant (24-21) edge over Brunner, while Portman has a more secure (33-10) lead over Ganley.
KY-Sen: Bunning Reiterates Interest in 2010 Re-Election
A day after an article hinted that Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning might be reconsidering re-election in the wake of Trey Grayson's huge GOP primary fundraising haul, Bunning himself moved to remind voters that he still intended to make a go of it. He also took a shot at his favorite targets--John Cornyn and the NRSC:
Bunning said he expects the winner of the Democratic primary to get a big financial boost from the party’s Senatorial Campaign Committee in the general election, but he doesn’t expect the same commitment from the GOP committee if he wins the Republican primary.
SD-Gov: Herseth Sandlin Decides To Stand Pat, No Run For Governor
It appears as if the DGA's loss is the DCCC's gain in the reddish state of South Dakota. Popular Democratic Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, who has served in the At-Large House seat from South Dakota since 2004, has announced that she is seeking re-election to the House. There had been some speculation that she might jump into the open Governor's race. The RNCC has spent some cash here, but Herseth-Sandlin has been easily re-elected in both of the last two cycles.
RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Some Early Fundraising Figures Now Checking In
The deadline for campaigns to file their 2nd quarter FEC reports is eight days away, but the campaigns that did particularly well at the fundraising game are letting their numbers show a little early. In TX-10, Democratic businessman Jack McDonald is putting incumbent Republican Mike McCaul on notice, raising over three hundred thousand dollars for the quarter, and over $634,000 for the cycle. McCaul, who is the son-in-law of the founder of Clear Channel, will never hurt for cash, but this challenger is on track to easily outraise the 2008 efforts of Larry Joe Doherty, who held McCaul to just 54% of the vote. Meanwhile, in CA-10, we get a very admirable first quarter of fundraising from rookie candidate Anthony Woods, who took in over $100K for the quarter. Woods is challenging three fellow Democrats: state Lt. Governor John Garamendi, state Senator Mark DeSaulnier and state Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, in a crowded all-party primary on September 1st. Woods' campaign was quick to point out that Woods had twice the number of donors as Garamendi, who moved from a potential bid for Governor to this House special election a few months back. Garamendi announced last week that he had raised $300K from approximately 350 separate donors.