Unemployment is going to 12% without further action. Does anyone really think Democrats won't lose huge after a failure to address that level of unemployment? The only question worth asking now is when Conservatives stop pretending that a tidal wave of unemployment isn't rolling over this country.
The problem with the current number of unemployed is that it roughly matches the administrations pessimistic estimate for unemployment if there was NO stimulus bill. This emboldened Republican wreckers to point out, correctly, that the administration was wrong about the cure for this Depression. The Republican firebrands are obviously right as far as that statement goes. But they were wrong about their prescription for a cure.
Tax cuts are not going to be spent in this economy. They will simply ramp up the increasing saving ratefurther. Any money spent in these conditions has to be spent by the only groups spending instead of saving any new family revenues. The only way to gain necessary job creating consumer spending is to target low income people. Those are the very people most hired for construction and road building work. The problem was not in the administrations approach - it was in it's estimates of unemployment. but an even greater problem was the effective cuts made in the total spent on the stimulus and the diversion of funds to a realtor bail out scheme and other tax notions that are not effective job creators.
Republicans will make hay over a new stimulus bill. They might have a momentary surge at the polls if one is passed. Some races might tighten for a short time. If the Democratic Congress fails to act while unemployment surges far past their pessimistic estimates then the bottom will drop out of futures markets for individual Democratic congressman.
A new stimulus bill will immediately send raw materials firms scurrying to hire. It will then immediately form a sea wall against the developing tidal wave of unemployment. The coming wave of unemployment will still make this a country hurting beyond most memories. But with a sufficient stimulus comprising only road, energy and communications infrastructure this Depression will start to recede within a year.
Democratic leaders are acting like they did during the Reagan years. They are curling up into a fetal position whenever the Republicans gain a rhetorical advantage. The coming level of unemployment is going to give the GOP more than a talking point. It is going to hand them the next election and the scalps of dozens of Democrats on a platter. Reid, Bidden and other democrats who claim there is no new stimulus plan better start getting on the right sideof planning this county's future instead of flinching at every Republican onslaught.
One way to blunt the conservatives and get Democrats back in NECESSARY policy mode instead of short sided and here a losing campaign mode is to write a stimulus spending authorization dependant on the unemployment rate. As unemployment rises more money would be available. If unemployment starts to fall then the money would start to dry up. But whatever mechanism is used it must result in a stimulus soon!