The direct mortality of H1N1 would be one hundred times more than seasonnial flu
Hat tip to a friend of flutrackers.com
This morning I encountered this article, it is in French and I have done my best in the translation.
It is authentic and corroborated.
Please take a few minutes
Sno
LE MONDE | 26.08.2009 lemonde.fr
Antoine Flahault, a French Authority and Professor in matters of influenza said the following;
There are three ways to died of influenza
The First almost vanished in developed counties is the bacterial over infection.
The Second is a viral pneumonia (pneumopathy) that lead in its distress symptoms a Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS), and death in 50 to 60% of cases.
In this situation of 'Direct Mortality' it is the le virus that kills.
The third cause, the most frequent, is the aggravation of severe pre-existing disease.
I hear Dr Nidom of Indonesia almost two days ago saying;
H1N1 is the Trigger of pre-existing diseases.
Snowy
LE MONDE | 26.08.2009
Antoine Flahault, a French Authority and Professor in matters of influenza said the following;
This aggravation of pre-existing diseases affecting mostly the ederlies. had become non compressible since about 20 years.
For Seasonal flu , it is about one death for 1000 infected in rich countries.
For the H1N1 flu, which of these mortalities is worrying ?
We often hear that the A flu would have a tendency to kill more the youths than the elderlies.But it could a little too fast deduction.
In Seasonal flu deaths of the third type - those that affect mostly the elderlies constitute an invisible mortality at this point. It is often become detected in statistics, only many months after the epidemic.
Each Year (In France) after the passage of the Seasonal flu mortality has risen of about 5 to 6 thousands. For this particular form of mortality the effects of the pandemic flu should not be inferior of those of the Seasonal flu. But it is too early to detected
But 50 % of cases of A flu affects individuals under 20 years old.
It's True but it is True for Seasonal flu too !
In France 50% of Seasonal flu happened among Individuals under 20 yrs old
So there is no category of people at risk?
The mortality that we are witnessing now is essentially Direct Mortality, cause by a ARDS. These deaths seems to happened in an aleatory fashion in the infected population, thus more often among youths.
In the Seasonal flu few cases of ARDS are reported and we cannot structure statistic to say that this group or that group is more targeted.
The CDC has published the description of 10 cases of the A flu deaths by ARDS among whom 9 where obese.
This severe obesity could represent a risk factor unknown before.
In the same way 13 % o A flu in US happened to Pregnant Women, most of them dying of ARDS.
They could represent too a population at risk.
What is the Frequence of this Direct Mortality via ARDS.
For Seasonal flu we can estimate at one case per million, maybe less.
In France, we have an average of 5 to 6 millions cases of Seasonal flu each year and to my knowledge not more than 5 or 6 deaths of ARDS for this disease.
For the H1N1 flu, we do have today more documented cases.
In New-Caledonie, when we were at 3 cases (5 cases are now documented) the Government estimated 20 000 people infected - so without doubts around 30 000 infections in counting the cases of the silent ones.
At Ile Maurice, we had 7 deaths at the reanimation service on 15 000 declared cases, but my contacts with the 'Medical Instances' on the Island make us think that there are more numerous, probably 50 000 cases, therefore 70 000 infections.
We would be facing a disease whose direct mortality rate is one case per 10 000 infections would indeed be very seldom but still 100 times more superior than Seasonal flu.
We have just publish this in PLoS Currents Influenza.
...more at http://www.flutrackers.com/...
Snowy
