It's the economy stupid!
Only Moose jawed Palin phreaks think the mindless paranoia about health reform has sunk it or Democrats. The public has favored this limited a health reform for decades and ordinarily the sort of death rattle passing for debate coming from conservatives wouldn't move them a whit.
What is eating away at Obama's poll numbers, the health issue's popularity and Democratic Congressional chances is the 35 MILLION Americans who vainly pounded a door for a job last month. In times these bad voters can turn predictably snarly. To an electorate this sour on prospects for a decent job market anytime in their lives the Party of No seems to a growing number to be a refreshing way to express outrage over this unfair universe!
If Obama proposed a resolution commending the sun for it's faithful service you can expect those unemployed and triple that number of the unemployed armies immediate family and friends would be prone to be against it. Hungry people brook no excuses for politicians not working on their immediate concern! And sniff ing over the law passed previously is no acceptabel excuse for those deprived and without a glimmer of hope in that last package aimed more at bailing out existing state projects than creating new projects. This failing job market is surely the Republicans greatest boon in their improved chances.
Health care should, of course, be passed anyway. It is vital to any rational economy that people not be tied into dead end jobs they are overqualified for just because they are fearful of losing insurance - now more than usually. But the arguments about health care are not whats driving it's poll numbers
Pollyanna's will be especially crucial in delivering Democrats to this Dunkirk. The Pollyanna's cooing about good times ahead will help convince the electorate that democrats are as out of touch as Republicans were in 2008. If the Pollyanna's were right ( which is moot but which I doubt ) their pie in the sky pronouncements will still get a deaf ear from people who are too hungry to be optimists. Hungry people need specific details on where food will be delivered to be moved. They won't respond to theories they often correctly perceive as a policy makers self serving moonshine.
Almost certainly employment is going to get worse before it gets better. There may have been a few hundred thousand less very frustrated people pounding those doors for a job last month. But the reason why is in another number. There were fewer people working last month. The jobless anticipated they wouldn't be hired and saved energy and resources in staying home. But the unemployed are not flocking to stores in their idle time. There is no silver lining when the whole sky gets this dark. Our consumer market is likely in a downward spiral. That will take MASSIVE intervention to address. The entire dismal circumstance has this exclamation point - more than a half million more were unemployed for a duration considered long term by the record keepers.
With unemployment well into double digits next Spring the Democrats will have one chance at preventing Republicans from routing them with promises of immediate tax breaks that would at least stave off hunger pains for some families for a few months. Democrats must convince the public they have a better plan than the tax breaks of Republicans to deliver relief. At this late date the case may be impossible to make for public works. The lure of the tax break may be too much for truly needy families to resist. But it is a siren song leading to disaster. Too much of the tax break would go to worried but solvent families who would horde it in savings and make much of it non-job creating leaks in the budget needed for stimulus. The public investment strategy is the only one that makes sense - and one that democrats had better start practicing making a case for.
There will be three voices for the army of unemployed to hear soon. Republicans will offer them immediate bread and circuses with a tax cut. Some Democrats will deny their is an unemployment problem. There will be proposals for a greatly expanded public works next Spring. If democrats wind up following the lead of those denying a problem they deserve to lose!
Heres some important readingfor those who might sometime soon decide not to follow the Pollyann's into the gathering gloom.