Obama is either is really that smart or he is the luckiest son of a bitch in the world – I really can’t tell, because honestly I’ve been turning sour on Obama the last couple of months. But after everything that has happened he has a seventy-five percent chance or better (actually the mathematics are a little bit more complicated and perhaps a Nate Silver clone can figure it out) that Obama is going to get most of what he wants. In essence we have game to what evolutionary theorist will claim you always come to at a moment of possible change - a game theory scenario in the health care debate. Now at its most rudimentary when you use game theory to determine how decisions will turn out you use four cells. Again, I’m not capable of creating the actual chart but I can tell you what I believe is in each cell. Much of this has to do with a very interesting feature and bug in the reconciliation process which argues that a bill going through reconciliation will have to have a much stronger public option. To game this out by finding out what is in each cell and why Obama is probably going to win please follow me below the fold.
Cell # 1 Obama does not have fifty votes to pass the bill through reconciliation, the health care industry believes he does not have fifty votes, and the health care industry scuttle health care for a generation.
Cell#2 Obama does have fifty votes. The health care industry believes he does not have fifty votes, the bill passes with a very strong public option that the health company hates.
Cell#3 Obama does have fifty votes. The health care industry believe Obama has fifty votes and they turn on a dime and start lobbying for sixty vote so that Congress can pass a health care bill will a weaker public option avoiding the reconciliation bill (and you know if Congress lobbies for the sixty votes they will get it).
Cell#4 Obama does not have fifty votes. The health care industry believes he does have fifty votes and they turn on a dime and start lobbying for sixty vote so that Congress can pass a health care bill will a weaker public option avoiding the reconciliation bill (and you know if Congress lobbies for the sixty votes they will get it).
I can’t think of any other way to set up the cells. If somebody else can please let me know (only people who are serious about gaming this out though please).
In three out of the four cells Obama wins. He either gets a strong public option, or a bill passed through Congress with an (albeit) weak public option, but that will not have a sunset and will be open to continuous improvement. More important the corporations, after throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the health care proposals will have lost, and the political world will know they have lost.
The great thing about this upcoming scenario is this is not poker. I know many are thinking the Democrats will mess this up – but actually if you follow game theory it really can’t be mess up. And I know some are thinking that somehow Obama will sell out to the insurance industries – but believe me these four cells wouldn’t look this way if he was selling out – or if he was trying to sell out (cell out?) then he messed up. I don’t think even Obama know if he has fifty votes. Nobody does. There are things he can do to get to fifty votes but I am not sure if he or the Democrats are willing to do them. But the health care industry isn’t sure what he’s willing to do either.
The most logical thing for the health care companies to do at this point is to try and get the sixty votes for cloture and pass a weaker public option and see how weak they can get it. Of course these guys in the health care business aren’t geniuses so I’m thinking that maybe we wind up with the strongest possible public option.
How much of this has been happenstance and how much planned? Damned if I know.