Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/14-16 results. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
As you may know there will be one question on the ballot this November in Maine addressing the issue of same-sex unions. In part it will read "Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry?" A yes vote takes away the right of same-sex couples to marry. A no vote keeps the right of same-sex couples to marry. If the election were held today would you vote YES or NO on this question?
All 48 46
Men 52 43
Women 44 49
Dem 31 60
Rep 74 20
Ind 45 52
18-29 43 52
30-44 45 49
45-59 51 44
60+ 55 38
1st CD 45 50
2nd CD 51 42
The forces of bigotry have a 2-point lead, but it's within the margin of error. This thing is statistically tied. It's a toss-up. It's a battle between the side who can best bring out its supporters to the polls. And it's a battle to persuade that tiny percent of undecideds to vote for equality. In fact, millions will be spent by both sides to bring that 6 percent home. You can help the "no" side protect marriage equality by contributing here.
The demographics are a mixed bag -- men aren't with us, but women are. Democrats are obviously a strong demo for us, and with 9 percent of the undecided coming from their ranks, that's a positive sign. Independents lean our way, but it'd be nice to grow our margin there, since Republicans will be motivated to turn out, and they'll provide the bulk of the bigot vote.
Young people are strongly with us, older folk aren't. Who are the more dependable voters? We can't take anything for granted on that front. Getting out the youth vote will be imperative for the "No on 1" campaign.
Geographically, the bigger challenge is in the 2nd CD, the big mass of land in northern Maine bordering Canada:
We were overconfident in California. In Maine, there is no illusion of easy victory. This one will be hard fought, and conservative forces will once again spend with little abandon to delay the inevitable. They can read the polls as well, and they see that their most favorable constituency is dying off, and that younger generations are too tolerant for their hateful brand of bigotry.
If you live in Maine, register to vote early, if you live in the region, consider volunteering, and everyone else, if you can, consider contributing to the effort. If we can hold our hard-fought ground in Maine, it'll make it that much easier to fight for progress everywhere else, from California and beyond.
Also in that poll, some good news on the public option (which will be the focus of a separate post), some early governor race numbers (Dems have the early lead, but with too many undecideds to get too excited about it), and Maine has the lowest number of birthers we've yet seen. Only 28 percent of Maine Republicans are hopeless conspiracy theorists.
Update: Fixed typo in the results for the 30-44 demo.